Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Williams Companies (WMB)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.25-5.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.61 → 2.64 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WMB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Annual dividend grows at least 5% to $2.10 per share | A supporting condition in Williams Companies's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% annual dividend growth to $2.10. | Intact | Dividend growth stalls or falls below 3% next year | Dividend per share: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% annual dividend growth to $2.10. Target and observation units differ. Nov 2, 20260.525 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WMB is a pipeline infrastructure business with a durable-premium profile, rather than a turnaround or speculative growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the overall signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
WMB is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and an expectations gap that is close to balanced. The evidence flags high fragility in what is priced in, despite the premium appearing unjustified; confidence in the valuation model is low.
Over the multi-year view, management’s steady work to expand pipeline transmission capacity and grow the dividend supports continued operating progress. Power innovation investment is mixed, while near-term earnings risk is described as low but worth watching given consecutive earnings misses and the industry’s high miss rate.
A key swing factor is whether WMB maintains its recently raised guidance, since a reversal could damage management credibility. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strong results and guidance from ENB, KMI, and ET would support the energy-sector tailwind, while weaker results could erode it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WMB’s thesis rests on continued pipeline execution, dividend growth, and a supportive sector backdrop, balanced against expensive valuation and execution risk. The thesis is intact, but the recent shift to a mixed signal makes those factors important to monitor. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The year-to-date period also reflected higher gathering volumes including contributions from the 2025 Rimrock and Saber acquisitions, partially offset by lower minimum volume commitment revenues.” “Williams anticipates a leverage ratio midpoint for 2026 of ~4.0x and has increased the dividend by 5% on an annualized basis to $2.10 in 2026 from $2.00 in 2025.”
Adjusted EBITDA from pipeline projects grows at least 13% YoY | Williams grows pipeline projects, boosting adjusted EBITDA 13% yearly. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA growth falls below 7% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 8 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The year-to-date period also reflected higher gathering volumes including contributions from the 2025 Rimrock and Saber acquisitions, partially offset by lower minimum volume commitment revenues.” “Year-to-date Adjusted EBITDA increased 9% year over year to $6.2 billion, reflecting the strength of our natural gas transmission, storage and gathering businesses and keeping us on track toward the upper half of our 2026 guidance range.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Capital investment in power innovation reaches at least $1.64 billion | It invests $1.64 billion in power innovation. | Intact | Capital investment in power innovation drops below $1 billion next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.52 → $2.64 · observed estimates
$13.43B → $14.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.52 | $13,428,794,376 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.52 | $13,428,794,376 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.57 | $13,651,157,530 | 13 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.52 | $13,434,143,777 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.52 | $13,434,143,777 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.56 | $13,651,157,080 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.56 | $13,651,157,080 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.56 | $13,651,157,080 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.52 | $13,434,143,777 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.52 | $13,434,143,777 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.52 | $13,434,143,777 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.58 | $13,663,268,190 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.58 | $13,663,268,190 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.53 | $13,663,268,190 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.63 | $13,880,348,150 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.53 | $13,486,895,970 | 9 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.60 | $14,008,133,106 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.59 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.58 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.58 | $14,008,133,106 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.59 | $14,146,876,894 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.59 | $14,236,736,506 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.59 | $14,236,736,506 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.59 | $14,236,736,506 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.57 | $14,236,736,506 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.57 | $14,236,736,506 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.57 | $14,236,736,506 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.57 | $14,236,736,506 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.57 | $14,236,736,506 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 9 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.57 | $14,188,765,783 | 10 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.56 | $14,170,489,205 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.56 | $14,170,489,205 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.56 | $14,170,489,205 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.56 | $14,170,489,205 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.56 | $14,170,489,205 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.56 | $14,170,489,205 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.56 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.61 | $14,163,612,346 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.62 | $14,274,100,846 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.62 | $14,322,920,346 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.62 | $14,336,973,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.62 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.62 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.62 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.62 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.62 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.63 | $14,357,573,679 | 12 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.64 | $14,492,931,979 | 12 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.