Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Warner Music Group (WMG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$31.92-1.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.06 → 2.06 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WMG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations grows to at least $440M | Cash from operations improved from $332M to $440M. | Broken | cash from operations falls below $332 million next two quarters | Cash from operations: $142M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $440 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026142,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WMG is a music business with a growth and execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is intact: recent results are strong, and management’s main priorities remain on track, though management has been volatile.
The snapshot labels what is priced in as justified, with low fragility and high model confidence. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not explain its scale or support a more specific valuation judgment.
Near-term results have been strong: revenue grew 10%, operating income rose 80%, and free cash flow increased. Management continues to target margin expansion and cash-flow conversion for FY2026, while streaming growth supports the multi-year view. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but a guidance cut is a meaningful risk; the recent CFO and COO transitions also add uncertainty.
The multi-year thesis hinges on continued streaming and recorded music growth, margin expansion, and stronger cash generation. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the setup, while rate cuts or continued strength from sector peers could provide support. The recent agreement related to M&A activity is a positive event, but the snapshot gives no details on its expected effect.
WMG’s 1-3 year thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent execution, but management transitions and sector headwinds leave meaningful questions around consistency. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company also raised its dividend from $0.18 to $0.19 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend per share falls below $0.18 next two quarters |
Dividend per share: $0.19 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.19 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 20260.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Quarterly dividend per share increased from $0.19 in 2026-Q1 to $0.20 in 2026-Q2. Management has consistently declared regular dividends, showing delivering on capital return to shareholders. Delivery assessment Oct 31, 2026 |
Operating income grows to at least $264M | Operating income rose from $214M to $264M recently. | Intact | operating income falls below $214 million next two quarters | Operating income: $305M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $264 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026305,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 6.6% year over year | Warner Music Group grows revenue about 7% a year. | Under Pressure | revenue growth falls below 6.6% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.06 → $2.06 · observed estimates
$8.26B → $8.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $2.06 | $8,264,595,127 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.06 | $8,265,174,078 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.06 | $8,265,174,078 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.06 | $8,265,174,078 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.06 | $8,265,174,078 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.06 | $8,265,174,078 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.06 | $8,265,174,078 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.06 | $8,265,174,078 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.06 | $8,265,174,078 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.06 | $8,265,174,078 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.06 | $8,264,340,744 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.06 | $8,264,340,744 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.06 | $8,264,340,744 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.06 | $8,264,340,744 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.06 | $8,285,545,303 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.06 | $8,285,545,303 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.06 | $8,285,545,303 | 10 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.06 | $8,285,530,803 | 11 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.