Warner Music Group (WMG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
$31.92-1.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WMG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers
WMG — COO transition
Dated 2026-09-22
COO — Carianne Marshall: The departure of a Co-Chair and COO of a major subsidiary is a significant management change, but the structured transition and severance suggest an orderly exit rather than a sudden shock.
Why it matters: WMG aims for 150 to 200 basis points of margin growth this year. Meeting the high end would extend recent gains.
Supportive ifThe FY2026 report shows margin growth of at least 200 basis points year over year.
Worry ifThe FY2026 report shows margin growth below 150 basis points year over year.
Why it matters: WMG repeated its cash conversion target after strong cash flow growth. The full-year result tests whether that gain lasts.
Supportive ifThe FY2026 report shows operating cash flow conversion at or above 50%.
Worry ifThe FY2026 report shows operating cash flow conversion below 50%.
Why it matters: A new operating lead could change how WMG runs its music business. Watch for a named successor and stable results.
Watch forWMG names a permanent COO, and the next reported quarter keeps revenue growth at or above 10%.
Also watch forWMG reports no permanent COO and the next quarter shows revenue growth below 10%.
Why it matters: Recorded music streaming grew 11.8% in the latest quarter. A drop below 10% would mark a clear slowdown.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows recorded music streaming revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifThe next earnings report shows recorded music streaming revenue growth at or above 11.8% year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$116 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $357 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,827 loss on $10,000 · 28.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.