Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$135.76+0.69%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WMS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WMS — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-06
Other Events On August 6, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the approval by the Board of Directors (the "Board") of the Company of the declaration of a cash dividend of $0.20 per share, payable on September 15, 2026, to stockholders of record at the close of business on September 1, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.3 and hereby incorporated by reference.
Why it matters: Higher capex could indicate aggressive growth plans but may strain cash flow.
Watch forCapital spending is at or below $200 million for fiscal 2027.
Also watch forCapital spending is above $200 million for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Good integration is key to getting benefits from the NDS deal. Problems could hurt growth.
Worry ifGood news about integrating NDS into the company.
Less concerning ifReports of delays or issues in integrating NDS.
Why it matters: Updates on NDS integration show how well the company is handling its new purchase.
Watch forInvestor Day had good news about NDS integration and performance.
Also watch forInvestor Day had bad news or delays about NDS integration.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing and its growth path.
Watch forEarnings per share are much higher than what analysts expected.
Also watch forEarnings per share are lower than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend policy show how management views cash flow and profits. An increase shows confidence.
Supportive ifManagement announces an increase in the dividend per share beyond $0.20.
Worry ifManagement announces a cut or freeze in the dividend.
Why it matters: Growth projections show the company's long-term plans and market view.
Supportive ifManagement shares growth projections for fiscal 2030. These exceed current market views.
Worry ifGrowth projections are lower than current market views or not given.
Why it matters: Progress on segment realignment is key for growth after the NDS acquisition. Investors will look for signs of effective integration.
Supportive ifManagement says they have integrated NDS well. Segment performance is better now.
Worry ifManagement says there are still problems with segment integration. Performance metrics are down.
Why it matters: If NDS is integrated well, it could improve products and market share.
Supportive ifManagement says they have added NDS. This has helped their performance.
Worry ifManagement notes there are still problems with NDS. There are delays in using it.
Why it matters: The dividend increase signals a commitment to shareholders. Monitoring cash flow will show if this is sustainable.
Watch forCash flow remains strong enough to support the $0.20 per share dividend.
Also watch forCash flow is going down. This raises worries about keeping the dividend increase.
Why it matters: Spending more than this could show high costs. This may impact cash flow and shareholder value.
Worry ifSpending is over $200 million.
Less concerning ifSpending reported at or below $200 million.
Why it matters: Adjustments in capex guidance could signal shifts in growth strategy or market conditions. This affects long-term planning.
Watch forManagement raises capital spending plans to over $200 million. This shows confidence in growth.
Also watch forManagement lowers capital spending plans to below $150 million. This shows a cautious approach.
Why it matters: Good integration can help the company make more money and grow its market share.
Supportive ifManagement says they have reached key integration goals and found cost savings from NDS.
Worry ifManagement points out problems or delays in bringing NDS into the company.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if growth strategies are effective amid economic uncertainty. This is key for future guidance.
Watch forIn Q1 2027, net sales were over $850 million. This shows strong demand.
Also watch forQ1 2027 net sales fall below $800 million, suggesting challenges in the market.
Why it matters: A drop in organic sales growth could signal weakening demand in key markets.
Worry ifOrganic net sales growth reported below 9.2% for Q2 fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifOrganic net sales growth exceeds 9.2% for Q2 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: A stable or increasing dividend reflects strong cash flow and confidence in future earnings. A cut could signal trouble.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend at or above $0.20 per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut below $0.20 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $350 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,608 loss on $10,000 · 26.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.