Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$122.63-14.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WMS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WMS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 5, 2026, Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release setting forth the Company’s unaudited results for the fiscal second quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release with the results is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and hereby incorporated by reference. The information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section…
Why it matters: The $530M deal adds stormwater storage products. Closing on time clears a key step in ADS's acquisition plan.
Watch forADS reports the required approvals and closes the StormTrap deal by December 31, 2026.
Also watch forRequired approvals fail, or ADS reports the deal will not close by December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: StormTrap had $165M in sales over the last 12 months. ADS says its sales network can bring the products to more customers.
Supportive ifAfter closing, ADS reports StormTrap sales and names ADS products sold to StormTrap accounts.
Worry ifAfter closing, ADS reports StormTrap sales below $165M for a similar 12-month period. Or it reports no progress on cross-sales.
Why it matters: ADS confirmed sales of $3.35B–$3.55B and EBITDA of $1.00B–$1.05B for FY2027. Q2 results test that plan amid cautious demand.
Watch forOn November 5, ADS keeps both FY2027 targets and reports Q2 sales and EBITDA that support those ranges.
Also watch forADS cuts either FY2027 target, or reports Q2 results that make the stated ranges harder to reach.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $332 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,000 loss on $10,000 · 30.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.