Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION (WNC)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$11.11-4.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.23 → 0.81 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WNC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improvement in cash flow to avoid further credit downgrades | A supporting condition in WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is stabilize or improve cash flow over next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | further credit downgrades or worsening cash flow | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical recovery story, meaning results depend in part on demand in its industrial markets. The thesis is in a watch state: revenue and backlog have improved, but profitability remains limited and recent financial performance is weak.
WNC is described as cheap versus peers, though the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence says the current setup reflects weak execution quality, not the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and market turbulence; the expectations gap is negative.
Near term, revenue and backlog recovery provide evidence of progress, while operating losses and a recent earnings miss show that the improvement has not yet translated into sustained profitability. Parts & Services revenue grew year over year and remained profitable in Q3, but its operating margin was below the prior-year quarter.
The multi-year thesis depends on WNC scaling dry van output as demand and backlog recover, while improving operating performance and controlling facility costs. Near term, a guidance cut would add pressure; results and guidance from CAT, DE, and CNH could also signal whether the broader industrial backdrop is strengthening or weakening.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WNC’s recovery evidence is meaningful but does not yet overcome fragile earnings quality, elevated risk, and ongoing operating losses. The thesis hinges on converting improving demand into durable profitability. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is >= -0.60 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below -$0.60 in Q2 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Q2 2026 revenue between $380M and $400M | A primary condition in WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is >= $380 million. | Intact | revenue falls below $380 million in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $476.408M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $380 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026476,408,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.41 → $0.81 · observed estimates
$2.00B → $2.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.41 | $2,001,700,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.42 | $2,019,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.42 | $2,019,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.42 | $2,019,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.42 | $2,019,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.42 | $2,019,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.42 | $2,019,650,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.23 | $2,064,870,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.23 | $2,064,870,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.23 | $2,064,870,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.23 | $2,064,870,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.23 | $2,064,870,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.23 | $2,064,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.20 | $2,046,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.20 | $2,046,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.20 | $2,046,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.20 | $2,046,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.20 | $2,046,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.20 | $2,046,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.20 | $2,046,300,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.20 | $2,046,320,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.20 | $2,046,320,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.20 | $2,046,320,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.20 | $2,046,320,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.20 | $2,046,320,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.20 | $2,046,320,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.20 | $2,046,320,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.20 | $2,046,320,950 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.81 | $2,118,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.81 | $2,118,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.81 | $2,118,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.81 | $2,118,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.81 | $2,118,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.81 | $2,118,850,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.