WOLFSPEED INC/DE (WOLF)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.35+5.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Cash from operations improves toward break-even: TTM OCF -$36.9M vs target >-$22.4M.
Wolfspeed leads in silicon carbide semiconductors for EVs and 5G. Revenue is expected near $150 million next quarter. Cash from operations is improving, down to -$22.4 million in Q3 from -$42.6 million. The company issued $379 million in convertible notes to strengthen its finances.
Wolfspeed is still loss-making with a net loss of $119.9 million in Q3. Revenue growth is uncertain and recent share price dropped 51% from highs. Capital raises dilute shareholders and cash burn remains high.
The market expects about 17% revenue growth but prices in a high risk due to losses and volatility. Our fair value is around $275, suggesting some upside if turnaround succeeds.
Breaks if: failure to maintain capital or increased financial distress
Breaks if: cash from operations loss worsens beyond -$22.4 million in next quarter
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with a focus on growth in the AI data center market and silicon carbide products. The current thesis state is cautious, given recent earnings misses and a volatile management track record.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation that is cheap compared to peers. However, there is a significant expectations gap, indicating that investors may have low confidence in future performance.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to a 39% probability of missing earnings expectations. Management's focus on debt reduction and product expansion shows promise, but execution remains key.
The future performance hinges on management's ability to meet guidance, the Fed's interest rate decisions, and the performance of key sector peers like NVDA and TSM. Any negative guidance could lead to a significant decline.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Wolfspeed's guidance for Q1 FY2027 revenue is $140M-$160M, reflecting expected growth from AI data center markets. However, the company reported a Q4 revenue miss of $149.6M, falling short of analyst expectations. This raises concerns about its ability to achieve revenue growth and meet future guidance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $140 million in fiscal Q4 2026
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WOLF's trajectory will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.