Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-28 · fmp
WOLFSPEED INC/DE (WOLF)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.79+1.65%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WOLF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital structure strengthened by convertible notes issuance | The company issued $379 million in convertible notes to strengthen its finances. | Improving | failure to maintain capital or increased financial distress | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and recovery story, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is on watch: AI data center progress is encouraging, but WOLF remains loss-making and recent performance has been below its industry cohort.
The valuation model describes WOLF as cheap versus peers, but confidence is low and its expectations gap is negative. The evidence labels expectations as justified and fragility as low, though this does not remove the business risks or the cautious shift in the signal.
In the near term, recent earnings misses and erratic results make the next report an important risk; the snapshot puts the chance of another miss at 44%. Over the multi-year view, AI data center revenue growth and product launches show execution progress, while debt reduction has helped but the broader balance-sheet effort remains mixed.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued expansion in AI data center demand and successful launches across the silicon carbide portfolio. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative; easier interest rates and steadier results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, but neither is assured.
Over the next one to three years, WOLF combines real progress in targeted growth areas with high risk, ongoing losses, and uneven execution. The thesis remains on watch and depends on growth and balance-sheet progress continuing without further earnings setbacks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash from operations is improving, down to -$22.4 million in Q3 from -$42.6 million. |
| Broken |
| cash from operations loss worsens beyond -$22.4 million in next quarter |
Cash from operations: $-54.4M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: cash from operations loss narrows to less than -$22.4 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 20, 2026-54,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $140 million in fiscal Q4 2026 | A primary condition in WOLFSPEED INC/DE's published investment case. The stated target is >=140 million USD. | Intact | revenue falls below $140 million in fiscal Q4 2026 | Revenue: $149.6M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=140 million USD. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 20, 2026149,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-6.33 → $-5.83 · observed estimates
$0.80B → $0.79B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | $-6.33 | $796,050,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-5.83 | $794,900,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-5.83 | $794,899,450 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.