WOLFSPEED INC/DE (WOLF)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$28.35+5.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WOLF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 235 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 87.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 71 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WOLF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-19
and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filings of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Wolfspeed can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue decline year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in AI data centers shows demand for silicon carbide products. This helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifAI data center applications grew by 30% or more each quarter.
Worry ifGrowth in AI data center applications drops below 15%.
Why it matters: Slow debt reduction may affect financial health and growth plans.
Worry ifTotal debt reduction was less than $97 million.
Less concerning ifTotal debt reduction was more than $97 million.
Why it matters: Wolfspeed issued $379 million in Convertible Notes. This aims to strengthen its financial position.
Watch forNet income will go up a lot in the next quarter.
Also watch forNet income remains a loss or worsens in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$642 on $10,000 · ±6.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,175 loss on $10,000 · 11.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,271 loss on $10,000 · 72.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: His experience can impact important choices. It may help the company run better.
Watch forNew positive plans or improvements announced in three months.
Also watch forNo major changes or improvements seen in the same time.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could hurt Wolfspeed's performance. It shows the sector's health.
Worry ifSector revenue growth has been below its median for two months in a row.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median for two consecutive months.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance would show strong demand and effective execution. It would signal confidence in growth.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue reported above $160 million.
Worry ifQ4 revenue reported below $140 million.
Why it matters: A revenue miss would signal ongoing challenges in the AI data center market. This could affect investor confidence in growth prospects.
Worry ifRevenue reported below $140 million for Q1 fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifRevenue meets or exceeds $140 million for Q1 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Ongoing losses may show bigger money problems. Investors pay close attention to profits.
Worry ifNet income loss narrows to less than $100M in Q4 2026.
Less concerning ifNet income loss exceeds $120M in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Successful product launches can drive revenue and market share. They are key to Wolfspeed's growth strategy.
Supportive ifThere are successful sales or use of the new 10 kV SiC power MOSFET.
Worry ifNo significant updates or feedback on new products within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Further debt reduction will strengthen the balance sheet and reduce financial risk.
Supportive ifTotal debt decreases by more than $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal debt stays the same or goes up.
Why it matters: Cash from operations improved in Q3 but remains negative. This shows if the company can manage costs better.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive in Q4 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Slowing growth would indicate a potential slowdown in a key market for Wolfspeed. This could impact long-term growth expectations.
Worry ifAI data center revenue grew less than 20% from Q4 to Q1 in fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifAI data center revenue growth remains at or above 20% sequentially in Q1 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Negative gross margins show ongoing money-making issues. This may change views on efficiency.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin reported worse than -20% in Q1 fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP gross margin improves to -20% or better in Q1 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: More debt reduction would show better financial health. It shows management cares about finances.
Supportive ifThey announced more debt reduction of over $50 million.
Worry ifNo announcements of debt reduction or an increase in total debt.