WOLFSPEED INC/DE (WOLF)
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.79+1.65%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WOLF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -84.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 277 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 91.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 41 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WOLF — government funding
Dated 2026-10-07
Other Events On October 7, 2026, the Company announced that it had entered into a conditional commitment letter (the “ Commitment Letter ”) with the U.S. Department of War (the “ DoW ”), acting by and through its Office of Strategic Capital (the “ OSC ”), contemplating a senior secured delayed draw term loan facility in an aggregate principal amount up to $1.5 billion (the “ Facility ”), consisting of up to four tranches in the amount of $600 million for the initial tranche and $900 million f…
Why it matters: The loan is conditional and could add long-term funding. A deal still needs approvals and changes to some debt terms.
Supportive ifWolfspeed files signed loan agreements and reports that the first $600 million tranche can be funded.
Worry ifWolfspeed reports that talks ended, approvals failed, or debt changes blocked the loan.
Why it matters: The last report set Q1 revenue guidance at $140 million to $160 million. Revenue below that range would miss the stated floor.
Worry ifThe November 4 report shows Q1 FY2027 revenue below $140 million.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY2027 revenue is at least $140 million and no more than $160 million.
Why it matters: AI data center sales grew about 20% quarter over quarter in Q4. Slower growth would weaken this rising business line.
Worry ifThe next report shows AI data center revenue flat or lower than the prior quarter.
Less concerning ifAI data center revenue grows more than 20% from the prior quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$508 on $10,000 · ±5.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,157 loss on $10,000 · 11.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,271 loss on $10,000 · 72.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.