Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Warby Parker, Inc. (WRBY)
NYSEHealth CareSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$21.29-2.96%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareSpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.60 → 0.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WRBY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve 10% to 12% revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Warby Parker, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 10% to 12% YoY growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 8% in 2026 | Revenue growth: 9.81% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 10% to 12% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20269.808136 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with an execution-led multi-year view, rather than an established, consistently profitable compounder. The thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but confidence is medium and earnings quality remains weak because the company is loss-making.
WRBY trades at a durable premium, meaning investors appear to assign it a higher valuation than peers for expected lasting growth. The valuation is expensive, while the expectations gap is modest; the evidence does not show that this premium is fully supported by current profitability.
Near term, revenue growth is tracking toward management’s 2026 goal, and the company is expanding its store base, though progress toward the new-store target is mixed. Intelligent Eyewear preparation is underway, but no revenue from the product line is included in 2026 guidance. Recent results include two in-line reports after an earlier miss, so execution and the next guidance update remain important risks.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on maintaining the 2026 growth plan, executing store expansion, and showing that Intelligent Eyewear can eventually contribute revenue. A guidance cut or weaker jobs data could weigh on the business outlook, while continued strength from the sector bellwether PETS could support sector momentum.
For the 1- to 3-year view, WRBY has a credible growth story, but its loss-making status and expensive valuation make sustained execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Outlook For the full year 2026, Warby Parker is reaffirming its guidance as follows: • Net revenue of $959 to $976 million, representing approximately 10% to 12% growth versus full year 2025.” “Highlights • Delivered revenue growth of 9.8%.”
Implement $100 million share repurchase program | The company has a $100 million share buyback program. | Intact | repurchase program is canceled or less than $50 million executed | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Open 50 new stores in 2026 | Warby Parker plans to open 50 new stores in 2026. | Intact | fewer than 40 stores opened by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Opened 15 net new stores during the quarter, ending Q2 with 352 stores.” “• 50 new store openings.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.66 → $0.62 · observed estimates
$1.14B → $1.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.66 | $1,139,663,940 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.66 | $1,139,663,940 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.66 | $1,139,663,940 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.66 | $1,139,663,940 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.59 | $1,139,628,248 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.59 | $1,139,628,248 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.66 | $1,139,663,940 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.58 | $1,139,633,248 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.58 | $1,139,633,248 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.58 | $1,139,633,248 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.66 | $1,139,663,940 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.58 | $1,139,633,248 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.58 | $1,139,633,248 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.58 | $1,139,633,248 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.60 | $1,139,636,726 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.60 | $1,139,636,726 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.60 | $1,139,636,726 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.59 | $1,135,484,030 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.59 | $1,135,484,030 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.60 | $1,139,636,726 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.60 | $1,139,636,726 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.60 | $1,139,636,726 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.60 | $1,139,636,726 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.60 | $1,139,636,726 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.60 | $1,139,636,726 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.60 | $1,134,448,315 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.60 | $1,136,984,000 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.60 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.62 | $1,136,705,429 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,173 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,173 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,173 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,173 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,204 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,204 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,204 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,204 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,204 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,204 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,204 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,204 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,204 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.62 | $1,133,784,173 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.62 | $1,133,184,173 | 6 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.