Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Essential Utilities (WTRG)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-05
$46.05+2.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.36 → 2.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WTRG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditure near $1.7 billion in FY 2026 | It keeps investing steadily with capital expenditures around $1.7 billion. | Intact | CAPEX falls significantly below $1.7 billion in FY 2026 | Capital expenditures: $374.714M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: about 1700 USD millions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026374,714,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regulated utility with a measured growth profile, not a high-growth story. The long-term thesis is supported by on-track investment and merger plans, but recent performance trails its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile.
WTRG is valued below peers, and the evidence labels that discount justified. The expectations gap is modest, so the valuation does not appear to assume a large improvement in execution.
In the near term, management is on track with its infrastructure spending plan and the planned Q1 2027 merger closing. Its 5–7% adjusted earnings-per-share growth goal through 2027 remains under watch, while first-half 2026 GAAP earnings show some variability. A guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, and recent peer misses add caution.
The multi-year thesis hinges on completing the merger on schedule and turning infrastructure investment into steady earnings growth. In the near term, a guidance cut is the main negative trigger; easing interest rates or continued strong results from water-utility peers could support sector momentum. Confidence in the assessment has fallen from high to medium.
WTRG’s long-term thesis has support from management execution and a discounted peer valuation, but weaker relative performance and fragile earnings quality keep it on watch. The next evidence points are guidance, growth delivery, and merger progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Essential Utilities's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.07 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $2.07 in FY 2027 |
Diluted EPS: $0.36 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.07 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 3.6% annually | A primary condition in Essential Utilities's published investment case. The stated target is >=3.6% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 3.6% next year | Revenue growth: 6.56% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3.6% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 4, 20266.559309 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PE ratio below peer median of 25.28 | A supporting condition in Essential Utilities's published investment case. The stated target is <=25.28 PE. | Intact | PE ratio rises above peer median of 25.28 | P/E (TTM): 22.35x As of 2026-11-05; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 5, 202622.3544 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.36 → $2.36 · observed estimates
$2.73B → $2.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.38 | $2,690,566,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.38 | $2,690,566,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.38 | $2,690,566,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.38 | $2,690,566,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.38 | $2,690,566,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.38 | $2,690,566,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.38 | $2,690,566,670 | 7 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.38 | $2,653,500,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.38 | $2,653,500,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.38 | $2,653,615,000 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.36 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.35 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.35 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.35 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.35 | $2,727,521,999 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.35 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.36 | $2,698,990,178 | 5 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.