Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Western Union (WU)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.59+5.44%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.51 → 1.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.235 | The company keeps its dividend at $0.235 per share. | Under Pressure | Dividend per share falls below $0.23 | Dividend per share: $0.23 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.235 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.235 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WU is a value-oriented financial services business with a transition component, as digital and consumer services grow while traditional retail declines. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is below its industry cohort, and the risk label has risen to elevated.
The valuation evidence describes WU as cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, and priced-in status is tagged justified, with low fragility; this suggests the valuation does not rely on a fragile set of assumptions, but the evidence does not specify exactly what the market expects.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a 42% estimated miss probability make the next report a key risk. Operating income fell 31% year over year in 2026-Q2, while management says it is accelerating cost reductions for the second half of 2026. Over the multi-year view, growth in Consumer Services and Branded Digital is a positive, but delayed Intermex closing and synergies remain obstacles.
The near-term case weakens if WU cuts guidance on its next call, or if lower rates weigh on the financial sector. Sector momentum could help if Visa, Mastercard, and American Express continue to report strong results and raise guidance. Over the multi-year view, execution on cost reductions, continued digital growth, and progress on Intermex regulatory approval and integration are key swing factors.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WU’s thesis is a mixed transition story: digital growth and a peer-relative valuation provide support, while earnings misses, margin pressure, and deal delays keep risk elevated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Western Union's published investment case. The stated target is $1.50 to $1.60. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.50 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $1.50 to $1.60. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
No major regulatory blocks on growth deals | A supporting condition in Western Union's published investment case. The stated target is No state or federal blocks on key deals. | Intact | State blocks Intermex deal or similar growth deal | 0 blocks vs 0 target NYAG AOD resolved Intermex review; AUSTRAC probe is operational, not a deal block. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of 5% to 8% in 2026 | A primary condition in Western Union's published investment case. The stated target is 5% to 8% YoY growth. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: -2.26% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 5% to 8% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-2.25644 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.89 → $1.50 · observed estimates
$4.44B → $4.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.89 | $4,436,887,007 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.89 | $4,431,928,670 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.89 | $4,426,813,674 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.89 | $4,426,813,674 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.89 | $4,426,813,674 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.89 | $4,426,813,674 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.89 | $4,424,793,674 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.89 | $4,431,928,670 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.78 | $4,396,618,520 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.59 | $4,389,109,680 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.55 | $4,377,297,200 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.55 | $4,377,297,200 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.55 | $4,377,297,200 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.53 | $4,377,297,200 | 18 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.59 | $4,376,713,831 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.52 | $4,364,892,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.52 | $4,364,892,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.52 | $4,364,892,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.52 | $4,364,892,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.52 | $4,364,892,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.52 | $4,364,892,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.52 | $4,364,892,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.52 | $4,364,892,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.52 | $4,364,892,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.52 | $4,360,852,919 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.52 | $4,360,734,584 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.52 | $4,360,734,584 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.52 | $4,360,734,584 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.52 | $4,360,734,584 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.52 | $4,358,869,314 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.52 | $4,358,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.52 | $4,358,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.51 | $4,355,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.51 | $4,355,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.51 | $4,355,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.51 | $4,355,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.51 | $4,355,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.51 | $4,355,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.51 | $4,355,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.51 | $4,355,535,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.51 | $4,352,195,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.51 | $4,352,195,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.51 | $4,352,195,981 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.51 | $4,352,197,008 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.50 | $4,339,373,480 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.50 | $4,325,113,480 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.50 | $4,325,113,480 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.50 | $4,325,128,166 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.50 | $4,325,114,833 | 12 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 6 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.