Western Union (WU)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.18-0.97%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 51.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers
WU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026, The Western Union Company (the “Company”) issued a press release relating to the Company’s earnings for the second quarter of 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Securities Exchange Act”…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company meets its growth targets. This can impact stock performance.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue growth above the previous quarter.
Also watch forEarnings results show revenue growth below the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Closing the Intermex deal is key for growth in the Americas retail business. Delays have impacted margins and EPS.
Supportive ifThe deal will close on or before September 1, 2026. Management expects synergies.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed further or fails to close, impacting growth plans.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company is stable. It helps investors feel good about cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the dividend will remain at $0.235 per share during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts the dividend below $0.235 per share.
Why it matters: Rule changes could affect when the Intermex acquisition takes place. This may impact growth.
Watch forNo new rule problems come up, so the acquisition can close easily.
Also watch forNew rule problems or delays can push back the acquisition schedule.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $300 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,656 loss on $10,000 · 36.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Getting DFPI approval is key to closing the Intermex deal. Delays affect expected benefits.
Supportive ifDFPI approval is reinstated, allowing the acquisition to close by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifDelays in DFPI approval or more checks will slow the acquisition.
Why it matters: Faster cost cuts are needed to improve profits after recent earnings misses. This shows management's action.
Supportive ifManagement says operating expenses will drop a lot in H2 2026.
Worry ifOperating expenses stay high or go up. This shows poor cost management.
Why it matters: Reaffirming EPS guidance shows management is confident in making money. This can help investors feel better.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EPS guidance for 2026 at $1.50 to $1.60 during the earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance to below $1.50 during the earnings call.
Why it matters: Better operating margins mean the company is managing costs well. This shows it is running more efficiently.
Supportive ifQ2 operating margin rises above 18%. This shows better cost management.
Worry ifQ2 operating margin stays below 18%. This shows ongoing cost pressures.
Why it matters: Changes in the effective tax rate can affect net income and EPS. It is important for understanding profitability.
Worry ifThe effective tax rate for Q2 2026 is reported below 20%.
Less concerning ifThe effective tax rate for Q2 2026 is reported above 22%.
Why it matters: Closing the Intermex deal is important for retail growth. It can improve growth in the Americas.
Supportive ifThe Intermex acquisition is complete. It was announced in a press release.
Worry ifThe acquisition is delayed beyond the expected timeline or fails to close.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the financial sector slows, it could hurt Western Union's performance. This is key to understanding the sector's health.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of 12%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median of 12%.
Why it matters: Better margins mean good cost control. This shows efficiency during hard times.
Supportive ifGAAP operating margin improves from 13% in Q2 2026 to above 15% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGAAP operating margin falls below 13% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in Consumer Services helps offset drops in retail sales.
Supportive ifConsumer Services revenue grows more than 4% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifConsumer Services revenue growth falls below 4% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how cost cuts and revenue growth strategies are working.
Watch forEarnings per share (EPS) is over $0.31, showing better performance than expected.
Also watch forEPS is below $0.24, showing ongoing problems with revenue and cost management.