Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.08+25.05%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.36 → 0.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for XERS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage convertible notes via exchange agreements | A supporting condition in Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Execute exchange agreements for $23 million principal in 2026-Q2. | Intact | Fail to execute or reverse exchange agreements in 2026-Q2 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused healthcare business with a clinical development component, not yet a proven profitable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, though earnings remain loss-making and overall risk is elevated.
The valuation carries a durable premium versus peers, and the evidence tags that premium as justified, with no fragility gates triggered. The expectations gap is slightly negative, but model confidence is low, so the market’s assumptions are not clear-cut.
Near term, revenue momentum is strong: quarterly revenue rose from $83.1 million to $92.1 million, and management raised and then tightened its 2026 revenue guidance. Recorlev was a key growth driver, while XP-8121’s Phase 3 trial is expected to start by year-end 2026; recent earnings and capital-allocation events, ongoing losses, and a high-miss-rate industry remain risks.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on XERS sustaining its raised revenue guidance without another reversal, which could damage management credibility. Progress on XP-8121 and continued protection for Keveyis matter to the multi-year view, while healthcare-sector momentum and weakening employment data are external swing factors.
For the 1-to-3-year view, strong product growth and management’s revenue outlook support an intact thesis, but losses, elevated risk, and clinical execution leave meaningful uncertainty. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve and sustain positive net income |
| Net income turned positive at $2.2 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| Net income falls below zero over next 4 quarters |
Net income: $-31.101M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0 net income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-31,101,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “With a strong first half behind us, we are tightening our full-year guidance to $385–$390 million, reflecting our confidence in the team, the portfolio, and the trajectory of our business."” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Raise and deliver full-year 2026 revenue guidance | A primary condition in Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $380 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $380 million in FY26 | Revenue: $92.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $380 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202692,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.36 → $0.34 · observed estimates
$0.47B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.39 | $472,383,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.39 | $472,383,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.39 | $472,383,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.39 | $472,383,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.39 | $472,383,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.39 | $472,383,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.39 | $472,383,330 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.45 | $474,950,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.39 | $480,700,000 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.36 | $472,383,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.34 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.36 | $480,700,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.34 | $480,033,333 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.