Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (XERS)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.53-0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XERS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 207.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 31.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 176.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XERS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Xeris Biopharma Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release containing information about the Company’s results of operations and business highlights for the three and six months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes…
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that people still want Recorlev. This is good for the business.
Supportive ifIn Q3, product revenue grew by over 30% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 product revenue growth falls below 20% year-over-year.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong growth momentum. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement now expects revenue in 2026 to be over $390 million.
Worry ifRevenue guidance remains at or below $390 million.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows progress in managing costs and improving financial health.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q3 is less than $31.1 million.
Worry ifNet loss in Q3 is greater than $35 million.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA means the company is more efficient. It also shows more profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was over $20 million in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was under $15 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $442 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,657 loss on $10,000 · 46.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping positive net income is important for investor trust. A steady or rising net income shows financial health.
Supportive ifNet income for 2026-Q2 is at least $2.23 million.
Worry ifNet income falls below $2.23 million.
Why it matters: Sustaining positive net income shows operational success and financial health. This is key for long-term growth.
Supportive ifNet income remains positive for the next quarter.
Worry ifNet income turns negative again.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show trends in revenue and profit. This is important for future performance.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations with revenue growth.
Also watch forEarnings fall short of expectations with lower revenue.
Why it matters: Good capital use is key for managing resources. It impacts growth and money health.
Watch forManagement has a new plan for how to use capital.
Also watch forNo new updates or plans for capital allocation are shared.
Why it matters: If the guidance is confirmed, it shows growth and management's confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 total revenue guidance stays within the range of $380 million to $390 million.
Worry ifQ2 total revenue guidance is lowered below $380 million.
Why it matters: If Recorlev growth slows, it may mean demand has peaked. This could hurt revenue.
Worry ifIn Q3, Recorlev revenue growth was less than 50% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, Recorlev revenue growth stayed above 50% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Starting the Phase 3 trial is crucial for XP-8121's potential market entry and revenue.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the initiation of the Phase 3 clinical trial for XP-8121.
Worry ifNo announcement of Phase 3 trial initiation by the end of 2026.