Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Exagen Inc (XGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.60-10.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for XGN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash flow from operations from -$10.42M in Q1 | A supporting condition in Exagen Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Reduce negative cash flow toward -$3M or better. | Recovered | Cash flow worsens beyond -$10M | Cash from operations: $3.988M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Reduce negative cash flow toward -$3M or better. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 20263,988,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
XGN is a small, loss-making growth business with a healthcare sector tailwind, rather than a proven compounder. Its current long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent growth and raised guidance, but confidence is medium and the business still needs to show steady progress toward profitability and stronger cash generation.
The evidence describes XGN as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 54% premium to peers and low confidence in the valuation model. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests the market is not fully reflecting the favorable case, but valuation evidence is mixed and does not show that expectations are easy to meet.
Near term, revenue has risen from $15.5 million in 2025-Q1 to $19.9 million in 2026-Q2, and management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $72 million to $75 million. Operating losses have narrowed, but operating cash flow remained negative in 2026-Q2 and cash declined from 2025-Q4, so progress on profitability and cash generation is mixed. Recent earnings beats support execution, while erratic surprises and the risk of reversing guidance remain concerns.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on XGN delivering its 2026 revenue plan while continuing to narrow operating losses and improve cash flow. A guidance cut would weaken confidence in management’s execution; continued weakness in jobs data could weigh on cyclical healthcare businesses. Strong results and guidance from sector peers such as TMO, DHR, and NTRA would support the sector backdrop, though that is not specific evidence of XGN’s own progress.
XGN’s multi-year view is supported by growing revenue, raised guidance, and a stronger sector backdrop, but it remains a higher-risk, loss-making business with negative cash flow. The thesis depends on consistent delivery and improved cash generation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating loss improves from -$4.98M to less negative levels | Operating loss improved from -$4.98M to -$3.41M in Q1. | Improving | Operating loss worsens beyond -$5M | Operating income: $-1.722M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss better than -$3.41M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 2026-1,722,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 revenue between $70M and $73M | A primary condition in Exagen Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $70M and <= $73M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $66M in FY26 | Revenue: $19.941M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $70M and <= $73M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 202619,941,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding: Exagen’s goals, strategies, positioning, and ambitions; evaluations and judgments regarding financial results and the potential implications of those results, potential future financial and business performance, including any improvements to adjusted EBITDA, ASP, net loss and potential profitability; the potential utility and effectiveness of Exagen’s 3 services and testing solutions; the impact of Exagen’s revenue cycle management strategy on the timing of collections and cash burn; potential stockholder value and growth and full-year 2026 guidance.” “• Grew AVISE CTD test volume 10% compared to first quarter 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 2, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.51 → $-0.50 · observed estimates
$0.08B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.51 | $79,428,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.43 | $79,385,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.43 | $79,385,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.51 | $79,428,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.51 | $79,428,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.43 | $79,385,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.43 | $79,385,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.51 | $79,428,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.51 | $79,428,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.51 | $79,428,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.43 | $79,385,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.51 | $79,428,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.43 | $79,385,710 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.51 | $79,428,571 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.44 | $81,277,140 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.44 | $81,277,140 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.49 | $81,277,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.50 | $81,377,143 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.50 | $81,320,000 | 3 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.