Exagen Inc (XGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.60-10.69%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -76.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 89.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 19 industry peers
XGN — officer change
Dated 2026-04-23
Director — Ana Hooker: Ms. Hooker resigned from the Board of Directors, including all committees.
Why it matters: Test volume rose 10% in Q1 and 11% in Q2. A sharp slowdown could weaken the sales growth story.
Worry ifAVISE CTD test volume growth falls below 10% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifAVISE CTD test volume grows at least 10% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: The next report can show whether higher revenue and lower losses held after Q2. Check revenue, test volume, and cash together.
Watch forQ3 revenue grows year over year. AVISE CTD test volume grows at least 10%, and the adjusted EBITDA loss stays at or below $0.1 million.
Also watch forQ3 revenue falls year over year, test volume growth is below 10%, or the adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds $0.1 million.
Why it matters: Exagen raised its 2026 revenue range to $72 million–$75 million. Results near or above the new range would keep growth on track.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $72 million. Fourth-quarter revenue keeps the company within its $72 million–$75 million range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue is below $72 million, or the company cuts its $72 million–$75 million range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$279 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $675 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,447 loss on $10,000 · 74.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.