Exagen Inc (XGN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.58+0.53%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -78.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 10.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 88.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XGN — officer change
Dated 2026-04-23
Director — Ana Hooker: Ms. Hooker resigned from the Board of Directors, including all committees.
Why it matters: Confirming or revising revenue guidance shows how well Exagen is managing growth. It reflects the company's ability to meet its targets.
Supportive ifExagen confirms Q2 revenue guidance of $70M to $73M during the earnings call.
Worry ifExagen revises Q2 revenue guidance down from $70M to below $68M.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the business. This would help Exagen improve its current weak status.
Supportive ifExagen reports revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth shows Exagen is on track to hit its revenue goals for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grows year over year by 16% or more, indicating strong performance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 16%, raising concerns about meeting full-year guidance.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change company strategy. This can also affect performance.
Watch forManagement provides a clear plan to address the officer change.
Also watch forNo updates or negative comments on the impact of the officer change.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$324 on $10,000 · ±3.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $665 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,784 loss on $10,000 · 77.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $72-$75 million. This shows growth is strong.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue guidance is still $72-$75 million.
Worry ifManagement revises Q3 revenue guidance down from the current range.
Why it matters: New leadership can impact strategy and performance after the recent board change.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new board member or executive.
Also watch forThere have been no new leadership announcements for several months.
Why it matters: Exagen is losing less money. This shows they are controlling costs better. It may help them make money in the future.
Supportive ifOperating loss improves to less than $(1.7) million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating loss worsens or stays above $(1.7) million in Q3.
Why it matters: Stabilizing cash flow shows Exagen can handle its money well. This helps it stay strong long-term.
Watch forCash from operations improves to a loss of less than $5 million in Q2.
Also watch forCash from operations worsens to a loss greater than $10 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA loss went down to $0.1 million in Q2. This shows better cost control.
Supportive ifThe adjusted EBITDA loss goes down. We hope it gets to a profit or near zero.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA loss goes up or stays the same at $0.1 million.
Why it matters: Test volume grew 11% YoY in Q2. Continued growth indicates strong demand for Exagen's products.
Supportive ifAVISE CTD test volume grows more than 10% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifTest volume growth falls below 5% YoY in Q3.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations got better in Q2 but is still negative. This improvement is important.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative or worsens in Q3.