Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Xometry, Inc. (XMTR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$109.01-3.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.32 → 1.49 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for XMTR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Incremental Adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 20% in 2026 | A primary condition in Xometry, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=20% incremental Adjusted EBITDA margin. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 15% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on revenue growth and improving margins. The current thesis state is cautious due to weak recent performance and elevated risks in the sector.
The market seems to have a low expectations gap, indicating that XMTR's current valuation reflects a justified stance given its loss-making status. It trades at a premium compared to peers, suggesting that investors are factoring in some potential for recovery.
Management is on track with priorities such as accelerating revenue growth and improving Adjusted EBITDA. However, the recent financial performance has been weak, which could pose challenges in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GWW, FAST, and FERG. Positive earnings and guidance from these companies could provide momentum, while any misses could negatively impact XMTR's outlook.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, XMTR's trajectory will depend on its ability to execute on growth initiatives and navigate sector challenges. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Xometry, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major management disruptions; positive CEO transition. |
| Intact |
| Significant management turnover or negative leadership news |
No major disruptions; CEO transition completed CEO promoted internally; earnings beat; 2026 growth guided to ~37%. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of 27-28% in 2026 | A primary condition in Xometry, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 27-28% YoY growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 21% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 39.69% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 27-28% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202639.689013 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Progress in strategic partnership with Siemens | A supporting condition in Xometry, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Develop and integrate software solution with Siemens. | Intact | No meaningful progress or financial impact from Siemens in 12 months | Qualitative progress confirmed News confirms Siemens partnership is transformative and actively discussed at recent conferences, supporting the strategic objective. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.37 → $1.49 · observed estimates
$1.05B → $1.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.37 | $1,046,929,730 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.32 | $1,046,306,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.37 | $1,046,929,730 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.32 | $1,046,306,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.32 | $1,046,306,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.32 | $1,046,306,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.37 | $1,046,929,730 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.32 | $1,046,306,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.32 | $1,046,306,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.37 | $1,046,929,730 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.32 | $1,046,306,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.36 | $1,046,929,730 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.25 | $1,046,306,145 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.36 | $1,046,929,730 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.28 | $1,114,772,150 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.25 | $1,101,813,577 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.28 | $1,107,894,935 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.29 | $1,109,949,941 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.29 | $1,109,949,941 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.29 | $1,109,949,941 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.29 | $1,109,949,941 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.29 | $1,109,735,834 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.28 | $1,111,756,155 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.32 | $1,111,833,078 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.32 | $1,111,833,078 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.32 | $1,111,833,078 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.32 | $1,111,833,078 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.32 | $1,111,833,078 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.32 | $1,111,833,078 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.32 | $1,111,833,078 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.32 | $1,111,831,440 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.28 | $1,111,739,132 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.28 | $1,111,739,132 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.28 | $1,111,739,132 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.28 | $1,111,739,132 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.28 | $1,111,739,132 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.28 | $1,117,244,168 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.49 | $1,153,937,362 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.