Xometry, Inc. (XMTR)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$92.53-0.55%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XMTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XMTR — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-31
Sanjeev Singh Sahni: The filing details the compensatory arrangements and severance benefits for Mr. Sanjeev Singh Sahni, including amendments to his employment agreement.
Why it matters: Missing EBITDA goals may point to problems in operations. This can affect future growth plans.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was under $16 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $16 million.
Why it matters: New AI features could improve user experience and drive marketplace growth.
Supportive ifLaunch of new AI features that improve the quoting engine or supplier matching.
Worry ifNo new AI updates were announced. Current features are not doing well.
Why it matters: Slower growth in active buyers may show trouble in getting new customers.
Worry ifMarketplace active buyers grow less than 15% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifMarketplace active buyers grow by 20% or more year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Marketplace growth is key for Xometry's overall performance. It reflects demand and market share gains.
Supportive ifMarketplace revenue is growing by about 33%. This shows strong demand for custom manufacturing.
Worry ifIf marketplace revenue grows less than 30%, it suggests demand is weakening.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $724 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,993 loss on $10,000 · 49.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth may show less strength in the market. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth below 30% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue growth meets or exceeds 30% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Progress on this partnership could mean growth in the future. It is an important plan.
Watch forA new software solution was announced. It was developed with Siemens.
Also watch forThere are no updates or delays in the Siemens partnership.
Why it matters: Weak growth in the market may mean buyers are less engaged. It may also affect supplier growth.
Worry ifMarketplace revenue growth was below 33% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifMarketplace revenue growth meets or exceeds 33% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Progress with Siemens may help Xometry's market position. It could also boost growth opportunities.
Supportive ifNew projects or partnerships with Siemens may help Xometry's services.
Worry ifNo updates or progress reported on the Siemens partnership in the next quarter.