Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Xperi, Inc. (XPER)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.71+6.53%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.23 → 1.23 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for XPER yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures of $15M to $20M in FY26 | A supporting condition in Xperi, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $15M and <= $20M. | Broken | Capex exceeds $20M or falls below $15M significantly in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $6.945M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15M and <= $20M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20266,945,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk business improvement case, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is on watch: user growth and cash flow have improved, but confidence has eased from high to medium and recent performance trails its industry cohort.
The evidence describes XPER as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, but also reports a premium versus peers, so the valuation picture is mixed. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and no fragility gates are active; the evidence does not support a stronger conclusion about what the market assumes.
Near term, revenue guidance is being maintained, TiVo One users are growing, and operating cash flow improved from negative in the first quarter to positive in the second. However, quarterly revenue was nearly unchanged, cash flow has not yet met the full-year goal, and the business remains loss-making; a guidance cut is a meaningful risk despite the quiet miss-risk classification.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on TiVo One reaching management’s year-end user goal and on operating cash flow meeting its full-year range. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while lower interest rates or steadier results from large technology peers could improve the sector backdrop; those external factors are not evidence of stronger XPER fundamentals.
For the next 1 to 3 years, XPER shows real operating progress, but the loss-making business and weaker relative performance leave the thesis dependent on continued execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It targets positive free cash flow of about $20M. |
| Improving |
| Operating cash flow falls below $15M in FY26 |
Cash from operations: $14.56M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15M and <= $25M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202614,560,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue of $440M to $470M in FY26 | A primary condition in Xperi, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $440M and <= $470M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $440M in FY26 | Revenue: $114.492M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $440M and <= $470M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026114,492,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.24 → $1.23 · observed estimates
$0.49B → $0.48B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.24 | $489,498,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.24 | $489,498,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.24 | $489,498,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.24 | $489,498,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.24 | $489,498,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.24 | $489,498,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.24 | $489,498,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.24 | $489,505,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.24 | $489,505,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.24 | $489,498,500 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.24 | $489,505,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.24 | $489,505,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.24 | $489,505,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.24 | $489,505,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.24 | $489,513,330 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.24 | $489,519,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.24 | $485,597,400 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.24 | $489,519,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.24 | $489,519,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.24 | $489,519,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.24 | $489,519,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.24 | $489,519,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.24 | $489,519,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.24 | $489,519,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.24 | $489,519,933 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.23 | $483,626,667 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.