Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Xtant Medical Holdings Inc (XTNT)
AMEXHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.30+6.47%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for XTNT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful divestiture of Coflex and CoFix products | The company sold Coflex and CoFix products for $17.5M to focus operations. | Intact | divestiture not completed or reversed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
XTNT is a high-risk, loss-making medical products business, not yet a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is expanding its biologics portfolio, but recent results remain weak and the August earnings event included a miss.
The valuation evidence points to XTNT being cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with no fragility flags; the evidence does not specify what earnings or growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, performance may remain uneven: the latest cited guidance was lowered, and cash and revolving credit availability both declined in the second quarter. Over the multi-year view, new product launches and a distribution agreement have supported portfolio expansion, while debt reduction has been mixed and liquidity management remains important.
A favorable shift would require guidance to recover and the portfolio expansion to translate into stronger results. The main risks are continued weak performance and tighter liquidity; broader healthcare momentum may help if sector leaders keep reporting strong results. Evidence on these scenarios is limited.
For the next one to three years, XTNT remains a high-risk watch case: portfolio progress is offset by losses, weak recent performance, and liquidity concerns. The thesis hinges on clearer execution and financial improvement. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management aims to maintain positive cash flow despite recent challenges. |
| Broken |
| operating cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters |
Cash from operations: $-7.308M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 11, 2026-7,308,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Operating expenses for the second quarter of 2026 totaled $22.5 million, compared to $19.7 million for the second quarter of 2025.” “The increase was primarily due to a $5.0 million exclusivity fee paid to Dilon Technologies in connection with the Company’s distribution agreement, partially offset by lower general and administrative and sales and marketing expenses following the Company’s December 2025 sale of its Coflex/CoFix assets and international hardware business to Companion Spine.” Operating cash flow was $-2.114 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Full-year 2026 revenue at least $101M | A primary condition in Xtant Medical Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $101 million. | Intact | full-year 2026 revenue falls below $101 million | Revenue: $23.031M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $101 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 11, 202623,031,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.01 → $-0.01 · observed estimates
$0.11B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.01 | $112,374,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.01 | $110,052,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.01 | $110,235,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.