Xtant Medical Holdings Inc (XTNT)
AMEXHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.38-5.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XTNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -83.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 84.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 88 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XTNT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-11
of this report (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any registration statement or other document filed by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly provided by specific reference in such a filing. To supplement its…
Why it matters: The divestiture aims to streamline operations. Its effect on financial results will show if the strategy is working.
Watch forQ2 results show net income is better after the divestiture.
Also watch forQ2 results show net income is still negative, even after the divestiture.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and efficiency. It shows recent strategies are working.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q2 2026 narrows to less than $2 million.
Worry ifNet loss in Q2 2026 widens beyond $3 million, suggesting ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows ongoing problems after recent asset sales.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $16 million, indicating a decline worse than -30% YoY.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Sales from this product will indicate success in expanding Xtant's market reach and revenue.
Supportive ifSales from HEMOBLAST exceed $5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifSales from HEMOBLAST are below $2 million in the next quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $539 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,685 loss on $10,000 · 66.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A higher revenue forecast shows confidence in growth. This is true even with recent declines. It shows the company can recover.
Supportive ifManagement increased its revenue estimate for the year to more than $101M.
Worry ifManagement keeps guidance below $101M or lowers it.
Why it matters: Reducing debt will make the balance sheet stronger and improve financial health.
Supportive ifTotal debt drops below $20 million next quarter.
Worry ifTotal debt rises above $25 million next quarter.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a stronger market position for Xtant Medical. This could improve investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth is speeding up again. It is now close to 10% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth is slowing down. It is now below current levels.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue guidance show how management views business performance. Adjustments can mean problems or chances for growth.
Watch forManagement raises 2026 revenue guidance to more than $103 million.
Also watch forManagement lowers 2026 revenue guidance to less than $99 million.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is important for stability. It shows the company is managing costs and making money well.
Supportive ifCash from operations is positive, over $1 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations is still negative in Q2 2026. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: Stable cash levels are key for funding operations and keeping financial health.
Watch forCash and equivalents stabilize above $10 million in the next quarter.
Also watch forCash and equivalents fall below $8 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong sales of HEMOBLAST Bellows show the Dilon deal is working. This will help reach more customers.
Supportive ifSales from HEMOBLAST Bellows exceed $5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifSales from HEMOBLAST Bellows fall below $1 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Cash flow trends show financial health. Negative trends can raise worries about sustainability.
Worry ifOperational cash flow stays positive for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifOperational cash flow turns negative for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance of $101-$105 million for 2026 shows growth potential. It reflects the impact of the new HEMOBLAST product and sales team integration.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue guidance remains within the $101-$105 million range as stated in the Q1 report.
Worry ifQ2 revenue guidance is now below $101 million. This shows weaker performance expectations.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is making progress toward its revenue and cash flow goals.
Watch forEarnings show revenue growth compared to Q1 and positive cash flow.
Also watch forEarnings show continued revenue decline and negative cash flow.