Xylem Inc. (XYL)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$101.05+4.97%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XYL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 39 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XYL — President transition
Dated 2026-10-27
Executive Vice President and President, Water Infrastructure — Hayati Yarkadas: The departure is a planned, orderly exit resulting from a strategic business reorganization and divestiture, not a sudden shock or termination for cause.
Why it matters: Q3 orders rose 10% organically, but revenue was flat. A pickup in sales would show that orders are reaching customers.
Supportive ifQ4 organic revenue grows year over year and orders remain above the prior year.
Worry ifQ4 organic revenue falls year over year, or orders turn negative year over year.
Why it matters: Price gains and savings lifted Q3 margin despite lower sales. Holding the full-year margin outlook would show that these gains continue.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin is about 23.2%. Q4 margin is at least 23.2%.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted EBITDA margin is below 23.2%, or Q4 margin is below last year's.
Why it matters: Xylem kept the low end of its cash flow outlook but lowered the high end. The year-end result will test whether cash generation matches the plan.
Watch forFull-year 2026 free cash flow margin is at least 10.2%.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 free cash flow margin falls below 10.2%.
Why it matters: Xylem cut its revenue outlook from growth to a 1% decline. A further shortfall would point to more pressure from project timing or cautious spending.
Worry if2026 revenue is below about $8.95 billion, or organic revenue falls for the year.
Less concerning if2026 revenue reaches about $8.95 billion and organic revenue is flat for the year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $305 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,133 loss on $10,000 · 41.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.