Xylem Inc. (XYL)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$105.69-2.04%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XYL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -9.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
XYL — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-18
CFO — Andrea van der Berg: The filing primarily announces the internal promotion of Andrea van der Berg to CFO to succeed a departing executive, ensuring an orderly transition rather than representing a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: The acquisition will create a stronger platform for Xylem in water solutions. It could enhance revenue and market position.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by mid-2023. All required approvals have been received.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close. This is due to regulatory or shareholder problems.
Why it matters: Merging Evoqua could help Xylem grow and improve its market position.
Supportive ifXylem sees better revenue growth from Evoqua services in Q3.
Worry ifXylem faces issues or delays in merging Evoqua, which affects Q3 results.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks may show confidence in cash flow and spending plans.
Supportive ifManagement shares updates on the share buyback program. This shows confidence in cash flow.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share buyback program may show cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: A successful integration will show if Xylem can get the expected benefits from the deal.
Supportive ifThey said they will save $140 million each year from the Evoqua purchase.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in the Evoqua integration process.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$111 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $252 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,047 loss on $10,000 · 30.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in cash flow margin guidance show financial health and spending priorities.
Watch forManagement raises free cash flow margin guidance above 11.0%.
Also watch forManagement lowers free cash flow margin guidance below 10.2%.
Why it matters: A drop below this margin could mean higher costs or problems in operations.
Worry ifEBITDA margin was below 23.1%. This means costs are high or there are inefficiencies.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is at or above 23.1%. This shows good cost management.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue growth guidance may show shifts in demand or market conditions.
Watch forXylem raises its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to over $9.3 billion.
Also watch forXylem lowers its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to under $9.2 billion.
Why it matters: If revenue growth is below guidance, it may show weak demand or problems.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth was below 2%. This shows possible challenges in demand or execution.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 2%, showing strong demand and execution.
Why it matters: The buyback could support the stock price by reducing share supply and signaling confidence.
Supportive ifStock price shows a positive trend following the buyback announcement.
Worry ifStock price falls even after the buyback announcement.
Why it matters: A successful buyback could signal strong cash flow and confidence in future growth.
Supportive ifXylem completes a large part of the share buyback program.
Worry ifXylem suspends or reduces the share buyback program due to cash flow concerns.
Why it matters: This growth rate would signal that Xylem is improving its revenue trajectory. It would show that the company is making progress on its goal to increase revenue growth.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 3% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is 3% or lower compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue growth guidance show how well Xylem is handling demand and market conditions.
Watch forManagement raises Q3 revenue growth guidance above 2% year over year.
Also watch forManagement lowers Q3 revenue growth guidance below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA margin trends show how well Xylem is managing costs and making more money.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 23.5% in Q3.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 23.1% in Q3.
Why it matters: Stable free cash flow margin shows Xylem's ability to generate cash for growth and investments.
Watch forFree cash flow margin stays within the 10.2% to 11.0% range in Q3.
Also watch forFree cash flow margin drops below 10.2% in Q3.