Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
$17.23-10.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.16 → 1.16 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for XZO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain EPS guidance at $0.22 for 2026 | A primary condition in Exzeo Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.22 per share. | Intact | EPS guidance falls below $0.22 for FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.22 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
XZO looks like a smaller-cap financial business pursuing profitable growth, rather than a clear turnaround or a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is improving, but the current state remains watch because recent financial performance is still below its industry cohort.
The valuation is expensive versus peers, with a notable expectations gap tied to optionality, or value from possible future growth opportunities. The evidence labels that premium unjustified, though fragility is low because expensive valuation is not paired with weak fundamentals and turbulent conditions.
Near term, management priorities appear on track: revenue and net income rose from the first to the second quarter, while managed premium remained strong. Adjusted EBITDA margin also improved despite continued investment in products and infrastructure, and company quality recently increased; however, financial performance remains neutral overall and risk is elevated.
The near-term swing factor is the next guidance update, since a cut could prompt lower estimates; the evidence also notes a history of a deep miss, despite a low current miss-risk reading. Over the multi-year view, execution on customer growth and platform expansion matters, alongside rate conditions and whether financial-sector peers continue to report strong results and raise guidance.
Over the next one to three years, XZO’s thesis rests on continued execution and improving fundamentals supporting an already expensive valuation. The evidence is mixed, so the long-term thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Exzeo Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $217 million. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $217 million in FY25 |
Revenue: $55.186M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $217 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 5, 202655,186,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Execute $12 million share buyback program | The company supports shareholders with a $12 million share buyback program. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.19 → $1.16 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.15 | $274,960,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.15 | $274,960,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.15 | $274,960,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.15 | $274,960,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.15 | $274,960,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.15 | $274,960,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.15 | $261,731,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.15 | $261,731,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.19 | $272,233,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.16 | $259,682,666 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.16 | $259,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.16 | $259,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.16 | $258,782,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.16 | $254,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $1.16 | $254,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.