Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
$17.23-10.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XZO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 63.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 251 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XZO — earnings in line
Dated 2025-12-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 10, 2025, Exzeo Group, Inc. ("Exzeo") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report in Form 8-K. Exzeo plans to host an earnings conference call on December 10, 2025 at 4:45 p.m. Eastern Time, during which members of executive management, including our Chief Executive Officer, President,…
Why it matters: First-half cash from operations fell year over year, in part due to the timing of collections. A recovery would ease concern about cash flow swings.
Watch forQ3 cash from operations is above $25.5 million, the Q1 2026 amount.
Also watch forQ3 cash from operations is below $15.4 million, the Q2 2026 amount.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue rose 3% year over year, while managed premium grew 15%. The next report tests whether customer growth continues.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $57.8 million and managed premium is above $1.40 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is at or below $56.1 million, or managed premium is below $1.22 billion.
Why it matters: Q2 margin rose to 53% from 49% in Q1. A higher margin would show the firm can invest and still earn more per dollar of revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin tops 53%.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin is below 49%, the Q1 2026 level.
Why it matters: A new carrier can add platform business. Exzeo also launched Ventures to build AI products, but gave no launch dates or sales goals.
Supportive ifExzeo names a new carrier partner or reports sales from a named AI product.
Worry ifThe next two earnings reports name no new carrier and report no AI product launch or sales.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $624 loss on $10,000 · 6.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,825 loss on $10,000 · 48.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The plan lasts one year but does not require Exzeo to repurchase shares. Future filings can show if it uses the authorization.
Watch forA quarterly filing shows share repurchases under the $25 million plan.
Also watch forA quarterly filing shows no repurchases under the plan. Or the company suspends or cancels it.