Exzeo Group, Inc. (XZO)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.55-1.25%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XZO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 50.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 208 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XZO — earnings in line
Dated 2025-12-10
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 10, 2025, Exzeo Group, Inc. ("Exzeo") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report in Form 8-K. Exzeo plans to host an earnings conference call on December 10, 2025 at 4:45 p.m. Eastern Time, during which members of executive management, including our Chief Executive Officer, President,…
Why it matters: Keeping managed premium above this level shows strong growth in customer use.
Supportive ifManaged premium was over $1.4 billion in Q3.
Worry ifManaged premium drops below $1.35 billion. This shows possible customer loss.
Why it matters: New partnerships may help Exzeo's market position and increase revenue.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new carrier partner joining the Exzeo platform.
Worry ifNo new partnerships have been announced. This suggests growth opportunities are stuck.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Exzeo continues its strong financial performance. Investors look for growth in revenue and net income.
Supportive ifRevenue growth exceeds 5% year over year compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifRevenue growth is below 5% year over year compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue target shows the business is doing well. This helps build investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue reported at or above $217 million for 2025.
Worry ifRevenue reported below $200 million for 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$197 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $627 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,825 loss on $10,000 · 48.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The repurchase program signals management's confidence in the company's value. It may support the stock price.
Supportive ifManagement says they finished a big part of the $12 million buyback.
Worry ifThere are no updates on share buybacks for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations is crucial for funding growth. A decline below $15 million could indicate financial strain.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $15 million. This shows possible cash generation problems.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations was above $15 million. This shows healthy cash generation.
Why it matters: ARR growth is crucial for Exzeo's long-term success. A drop below this level may indicate challenges.
Worry ifARR is below $210 million. This suggests slower customer growth or retention.
Less concerning ifARR is over $210 million. This shows strong customer growth and retention.
Why it matters: A drop below median growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Staying above 50% shows good cost management while growing.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 50% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 48%. This suggests costs are rising.
Why it matters: Net income shows how profitable a company is. A drop may mean problems.
Worry ifNet income is below $23 million. This suggests possible challenges in making money.
Less concerning ifNet income is over $23 million. This shows strong performance in operations.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a key indicator of Exzeo's business health. Slower growth could signal issues with customer retention or market demand.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth is less than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth is 5% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing the repurchase program shows management believes in the stock. It also shows they want to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company finishes the $25 million share repurchase program on time.
Worry ifThe company stops or cancels the share repurchase program before it is done.
Why it matters: New partnerships can drive growth and expand Exzeo's market presence. They are crucial for the success of the Exzeo Platform.
Supportive ifA new insurance carrier partnership has been announced.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA margin may mean costs are rising or there are inefficiencies. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifEBITDA margin is below 49%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays at or above 49%.