Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Yeti Holdings (YETI)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$46.95-2.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.35 → 3.36 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for YETI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $2.83-$2.89 in 2026 | Profit margins remain stable with EPS near $2.88 to $2.89. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.83 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.94 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.83 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20260.94 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
YETI is a growth-oriented consumer business with a multi-year thesis built on international expansion, stronger profitability, and cash generation. The thesis is intact, but its signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
Valuation is roughly in line with peers, and the priced-in assessment is described as justified rather than fragile. Expectations are somewhat ahead of the model’s view, so the setup depends on continued execution rather than a large gap between expectations and results.
Near term, recent results have been strong, with earnings beats in May and August 2026, and management reaffirmed guidance as of August 13. International sales are growing, adjusted operating margin improved in the first half of 2026, and management says productivity and cash-flow priorities are on track. Earnings quality is still fragile, and industry peers have recently missed, so execution and the next guidance update warrant attention.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining international growth, improving margins, and delivering its free-cash-flow guidance. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, YETI’s long-term thesis remains intact, but it rests on continued operating execution amid fragile earnings quality and a neutral sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow stays solid around $200M to $225M. |
| Intact |
| Free cash flow falls below $200M in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $48.09M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=200 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202648,090,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve operating income from recent decline | A supporting condition in Yeti Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income stabilizes or improves above $12M quarterly. | Intact | Operating income declines further below $12M quarterly average | Operating income: $93.518M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income stabilizes or improves above $12M quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202693,518,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Operational drivers that favorably impacted gross margins by 110 basis points included continued pricing discipline, product cost management and other factors.” “Through Project Upcycle, YETI’s enterprise-wide productivity initiative, the Company has identified approximately $100 million of productivity opportunity across cost of goods sold and operating expenses to help fund growth investments, offset mix pressures, and support sustainable margin expansion.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Revenue growth of 7%-8% in 2026 | A primary condition in Yeti Holdings's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 8.52% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20268.516861 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.32 → $3.36 · observed estimates
$2.15B → $2.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.32 | $2,153,611,638 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.32 | $2,153,611,638 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.32 | $2,153,626,014 | 11 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.37 | $2,156,173,054 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.37 | $2,156,937,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.35 | $2,154,430,829 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.35 | $2,154,430,829 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.35 | $2,154,430,829 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.35 | $2,154,430,829 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.35 | $2,154,430,829 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.35 | $2,154,430,829 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.35 | $2,154,430,829 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.35 | $2,154,430,829 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.35 | $2,154,430,829 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.35 | $2,154,787,079 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.36 | $2,154,458,427 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.36 | $2,154,458,427 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.36 | $2,154,093,893 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.36 | $2,154,093,893 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.36 | $2,154,093,893 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.36 | $2,154,093,893 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.36 | $2,154,093,893 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.36 | $2,154,111,540 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.36 | $2,154,111,540 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.36 | $2,154,111,540 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.36 | $2,154,111,540 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.36 | $2,154,111,540 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.36 | $2,154,111,540 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.36 | $2,154,111,540 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.36 | $2,153,799,966 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.36 | $2,153,799,966 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.36 | $2,153,799,966 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.36 | $2,153,537,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.36 | $2,153,537,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.36 | $2,153,537,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.36 | $2,153,537,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.36 | $2,153,537,464 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.36 | $2,153,537,464 | 12 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.