York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.96+5.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue reaches at least $545 million in 2026: FY26 guidance mid $390M vs $545M target.
York Space Systems aims to grow revenue to about $595 million in 2026. The company is expanding capabilities by acquiring Solestial and All.Space. These moves could strengthen its market position. Revenue growth despite losses shows potential for recovery.
The company is currently unprofitable and missed earnings recently. Its share price has dropped 47% from highs. Acquisitions are dilutive and funded by equity sales, hurting shareholders. Revenue growth may not offset ongoing losses soon.
The market prices the stock about 22% below our fair value near $36. The market expects negative growth over 3 to 5 years. Our view is aligned with the Street but cautious given recent earnings misses and losses.
Breaks if: EPS remains negative or declines further in FY27
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $545 million in FY26
Breaks if: Acquisitions fail to close or integration delays beyond FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on strategic acquisitions and government contracts. The current thesis state is insufficient due to recent earnings misses and a lack of clear momentum.
The market appears to be pricing in a low confidence level regarding YSS's near-term performance. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that the current valuation does not reflect significant risks, but expectations are cautious.
Management has shown mixed progress on strategic priorities, with some areas like government contract wins on track, while others, such as building inventory, are mixed. The near-term risk is elevated, with a 52% probability of missing earnings again, which could impact sentiment.
The future performance of YSS hinges on whether it can raise guidance in the next quarter and if sector leaders like SPCX, GE, and RTX continue to perform well. Conversely, any negative shifts in these bellwethers could lead to further challenges for YSS.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company expanded government contract wins and backlog. However, it missed earnings expectations and cut guidance. A recent article noted the stock price fell significantly. The price dropped from $33.42 to $9.48, indicating a disappointing reset.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, YSS faces a complex landscape with both opportunities and risks. Monitoring sector performance and management execution will be crucial. Not investment advice.