York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.090.00%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · YSS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -56.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 193 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
YSS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the press release incorporated into this Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as…
Why it matters: York said task orders can follow IDIQ awards quickly. Funded orders would show that these early awards are turning into work.
Supportive ifYork reports new funded task orders under its 2026 IDIQ awards. These add to the two task orders already noted.
Worry ifYork reports no further funded task orders under those IDIQ awards by its next two earnings reports.
Why it matters: York said Nemesis cleared its design review and remained on track for Q4 delivery. A delay would weaken that execution record.
Watch forYork reports that it delivered the Nemesis spacecraft in Q4 2026.
Also watch forYork reports a Nemesis delivery delay beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: York named Brian Frantz interim CFO after Kevin Messerle left. The next report can show whether finance leadership and reporting stay steady.
Watch forYork files its next earnings report on or near Nov. 12 with no disclosed delay or material reporting issue.
Also watch forYork delays its report or reports a major financial reporting issue.
Why it matters: York cut its 2026 revenue range from $545M–$595M. The next report will show whether sales stay within the new range.
Watch forFull-year 2026 revenue is $375M–$405M, or above $405M.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 revenue is below $375M.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$329 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,189 loss on $10,000 · 11.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,716 loss on $10,000 · 87.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin rose to 24%, helped by the end of a prior-year cost adjustment. A drop would show that the gain did not last.
Watch forQ3 gross margin is at least 24%.
Also watch forQ3 gross margin is below 24%.