York Space Systems, Inc. (YSS)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.96+5.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · YSS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
YSS — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-13
The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including the press release incorporated into this Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as…
Why it matters: A backlog above $600 million signals strong contract wins and growth potential for York.
Supportive ifBacklog rises to over $600 million. This shows strong contract wins.
Worry ifBacklog falls or stays below $592 million. This shows weaker contract activity.
Why it matters: A reduction in net loss would signal improved financial health and execution. It reflects better cost management.
Supportive ifNet loss in Q2 is less than the $114.8 million reported in Q1.
Worry ifNet loss in Q2 is greater than or equal to $114.8 million.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand. It also means successful contract wins, which are key for future revenue.
Supportive ifBacklog increases to above $592 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifBacklog continues to decline or stays below $592 million.
Why it matters: New contract wins can lead to faster revenue growth and validate York's strategic shift.
Supportive ifYork secures at least three new contracts under the IDIQ model by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo new contracts are awarded under the IDIQ model in the same timeframe.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$392 on $10,000 · ±3.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,448 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,041 loss on $10,000 · 80.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth would show strong demand and effective execution post-IPO. It is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported at or above 10% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: The completion of the ALL.SPACE acquisition could expand York's capabilities and market reach. It is key for future growth.
Supportive ifThe ALL.SPACE acquisition closes successfully by Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe ALL.SPACE acquisition fails to close by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Backlog growth indicates future revenue potential. A strong backlog supports long-term growth prospects.
Supportive ifBacklog rises to over $700 million in Q2 results. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifBacklog drops or stays the same. This may signal problems in getting new contracts.
Why it matters: Closing this acquisition could strengthen York Space's market position and growth potential. It is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of Solestial, Inc. is now complete and announced.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close or is delayed a lot.
Why it matters: Good integration can help York grow. It can also increase their market reach.
Supportive ifYork says they successfully integrated ALL.SPACE in six months.
Worry ifIf there are problems or delays in integration, it can hurt operations.