Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC (YUMC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$49.77+0.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.35 → 3.36 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for YUMC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital expenditures of $600M to $700M in 2026 | A supporting condition in YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC's published investment case. The stated target is between $600 million and $700 million. | Intact | capital expenditures fall below $600 million or exceed $700 million in 2026 | Capital expenditures: $129.251M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: between $600 million and $700 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026129,250,951 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a restaurant growth and capital-return story, with management tracking toward its 2026 store-opening and shareholder-return goals. The long-term thesis is intact, though recent financial performance and management quality are rated neutral.
Valuation is about 6% above peers, and the evidence describes expectations as broadly aligned with the business outlook. The recent valuation measure rose, while the expectations gap remains modestly negative; no major fragility warning is flagged.
In the near term, management is on track with first-half store openings and capital returns, while spending progress is less clear because actual capital expenditure figures have not been disclosed. Recent performance remains in the top half of the industry, but the history of a deep miss and recent peer misses warrant attention.
The multi-year view depends on YUMC continuing to execute its store-growth and capital-return plans without cutting guidance. Near-term sector conditions also matter: strong results and guidance from restaurant peers could support momentum, while misses or lower guidance could remove that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on steady execution and store expansion, with moderate risk from guidance and the restaurant sector. The current evidence supports an intact but not risk-free long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026 | Yum China plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026 through dividends and buybacks. | Intact | total shareholder returns fall below $1.5 billion in 2026 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Cash returned to shareholders from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital Returns to Shareholders • The Company is on track to return $1.5 billion each year from 2024 to 2026, which is annually around 10% of Yum China’s market capitalization as of October 30, 2026.” “• Starting in 2027, the Company plans to return approximately 100% of annual free cash flow after subsidiaries ’ dividend payments to non-controlling interests.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Add 1,900 net new stores in 2026 | The company targets adding 1,900 net new stores in 2026, supporting revenue growth. | Improving | net new stores added fall below 1,900 in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.23 → $3.36 · observed estimates
$13.44B → $13.68B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.23 | $13,439,645,734 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.27 | $13,458,838,320 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.27 | $13,458,838,320 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.27 | $13,458,838,320 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.23 | $13,439,645,734 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.23 | $13,439,645,734 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.27 | $13,458,838,320 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.27 | $13,571,713,383 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.27 | $13,571,713,383 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.28 | $13,627,349,509 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.35 | $13,651,790,520 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.35 | $13,651,790,520 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.36 | $13,656,376,730 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.28 | $13,627,349,509 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.36 | $13,656,514,660 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.28 | $13,627,349,509 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.36 | $13,656,514,660 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.36 | $13,656,514,660 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.36 | $13,656,514,660 | 19 / 29 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.28 | $13,627,349,509 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.28 | $13,627,349,509 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.28 | $13,627,349,509 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.28 | $13,627,349,509 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.28 | $13,627,349,509 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.28 | $13,627,349,509 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 15 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.34 | $13,663,589,212 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.34 | $13,663,591,993 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.34 | $13,663,591,993 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.34 | $13,663,591,993 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.34 | $13,663,591,993 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.34 | $13,663,591,993 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.34 | $13,663,591,993 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.34 | $13,663,591,993 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.35 | $13,664,885,541 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.35 | $13,664,885,541 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.35 | $13,664,885,541 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.35 | $13,664,885,541 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.35 | $13,663,387,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.35 | $13,660,730,799 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.35 | $13,660,730,799 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.35 | $13,660,730,799 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.35 | $13,660,730,799 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.35 | $13,657,666,283 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.35 | $13,665,358,051 | 14 / 20 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.35 | $13,665,358,051 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.35 | $13,665,358,051 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.35 | $13,665,358,051 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.35 | $13,665,358,051 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.35 | $13,665,358,051 | 13 / 19 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.36 | $13,675,055,368 | 12 / 19 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.36 | $13,675,055,368 | 12 / 19 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 19 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.