YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC (YUMC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$49.77+0.18%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · YUMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
YUMC — earnings in line
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 3, 2026, Yum China Holdings, Inc. issued a press release announcing its unaudited results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: The Pizza Hut deal used a loan with up to a 12-month term. The final funding terms affect interest costs and debt risk.
Watch forYum China discloses long-term funding that refinances the bridge loan, with terms and costs stated.
Also watch forYum China reports no long-term funding plan before the bridge loan is due, or says funding costs exceed the loan’s roughly 2% rate.
Why it matters: The company opened 1,196 net new stores in the first half and targets over 1,900 for 2026. The next report tests the pace.
Supportive ifYum China reports more than 20,000 total stores by year-end 2026, in line with its target.
Worry ifYum China reports 20,000 or fewer total stores at year-end, or cuts its target of over 1,900 net new stores.
Why it matters: Yum China said ending the 3% fee could add 2.8 points to Pizza Hut margins. Q3 is the first full quarter after the August close.
Supportive ifQ3 Pizza Hut restaurant margin rises year over year from 12.9%, with the report noting lower license fees.
Worry ifQ3 Pizza Hut restaurant margin is at or below 12.9% year over year, or the report cites missed fee savings.
Why it matters: Yum China returned $718 million in the first half and targets $1.5 billion for 2026. The year-end total checks progress.
Supportive ifYum China reports total 2026 dividends and share repurchases of at least $1.5 billion.
Worry ifYum China reports less than $1.5 billion returned in 2026 or cuts the target.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$100 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $241 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,017 loss on $10,000 · 30.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: After buying the brand, Yum China raised its opening plan to more than 800 stores each year in 2027 and 2028. Store growth tests that plan.
Supportive ifYum China reports more than 800 net new Pizza Hut stores opened in 2027.
Worry ifYum China reports 800 or fewer net new Pizza Hut stores opened in 2027, or cuts the opening plan.