YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INC (YUMC)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.60-0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · YUMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
YUMC — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended and Restated KFC/TB Master License Agreement As previously disclosed, on June 16, 2026, Yum China Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company” or “Yum China”) and Yum! Brands, Inc., a North Carolina corporation (“Yum! Brands”), entered into the Membership Interest Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”), pursuant to which Yum China agreed to purchase, and Yum! Brands agreed to cause its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Yum! I…
Why it matters: If Pizza Hut's margins get better, it means the acquisition is helping profits.
Supportive ifPizza Hut's restaurant margin hits 16% or more, getting close to KFC's margin.
Worry ifPizza Hut's restaurant margin stays under 15% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Finalizing financing will show Yum China is handling debt well after the deal.
Watch forYum China announces a long-term financing plan to refinance the bridge loan.
Also watch forYum China delays or fails to announce any long-term financing plan.
Why it matters: Capex plans show how Yum China invests for future growth. Meeting the target supports ongoing expansion.
Watch forManagement says they will spend between $600 million and $700 million in 2026.
Also watch forManagement cuts the spending target to under $600 million for 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins from Pizza Hut could help Yum China make more money.
Supportive ifPizza Hut's restaurant margin improves to 12% or higher in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPizza Hut's restaurant margin remains below 12% in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,982 loss on $10,000 · 29.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Many new stores show that the growth plan is working and people want more.
Supportive ifYum China opens more than 200 net new stores in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 200 net new stores opened in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More margin means better cost management. It also shows strong performance in operations.
Supportive ifOperating profit margin expands beyond 11.1% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating profit margin contracts or stays below 11.1% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Good capital returns can increase value for shareholders and show financial strength.
Supportive ifYum China returns at least $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026.
Worry ifCapital returned to shareholders will be less than $1 billion in 2026.
Why it matters: Opening more than 800 new stores would indicate strong growth and market demand.
Supportive ifYum China announces over 800 new Pizza Hut openings in 2027.
Worry ifNew store openings fall below 600 in 2027.
Why it matters: Growth in same-store sales shows the brand is getting better and gaining customers.
Supportive ifPizza Hut reports same-store sales growth of 2% or more in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPizza Hut reports same-store sales decline or flat growth in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This return shows management's commitment to shareholders. It can enhance investor trust and stock value.
Supportive if$1.5 billion in returns is achieved through dividends and buybacks by year-end.
Worry ifReturns fall below $1 billion by year-end.
Why it matters: Closing the acquisition will eliminate license fees and boost margins for Pizza Hut. This is a key milestone for Yum China.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of the Pizza Hut brand closes in August 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe deal does not close on time. This is due to regulatory or financial problems.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it shows the consumer sector is recovering. This could help YUMC.
Supportive ifYUMC reports positive revenue growth year over year in its next earnings report.
Worry ifYUMC continues to report negative revenue growth year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings above this level would confirm strong operational performance and growth. It reflects the success of the acquisition.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 diluted EPS reported above $0.70.
Worry ifQ3 2026 diluted EPS reported below $0.60.
Why it matters: Capex spending shows how management plans to grow. Hitting this target shows they want to expand.
Watch forCapex spending lands between $600 million and $700 million for 2026.
Also watch forCapex spending falls below $500 million for 2026.
Why it matters: New store openings are key to Yum China's growth strategy. Tracking this will show if they can expand their market presence.
Supportive ifManagement says they will open 500 new stores by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNew store openings fall below 300 by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher sales at current stores show strong demand and good management.
Supportive ifSame-store sales growth exceeds 1% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSame-store sales growth falls below 1% in Q3 2026.