Ziff Davis (ZD)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$56.75+5.11%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ZD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -14.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
ZD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Ziff Davis, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its preliminary unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Why it matters: First-half free cash flow rose to $50.8 million from $21.9 million. Positive cash flow would support management's cash flow priority.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow from continuing operations is above $0.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow from continuing operations is $0 or lower.
Why it matters: This segment fell 5.0% in Q2 and 12.9% in Q1 year over year. Another decline would extend its slide.
Worry ifQ3 Technology & Shopping revenue is below $76.7 million, its Q2 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 Technology & Shopping revenue reaches or tops $76.7 million.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 2.7% year over year. A further drop would show pressure across the remaining businesses.
Worry ifQ3 continuing revenue is below $267.6 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 continuing revenue reaches or tops $267.6 million.
Why it matters: The company held back 2026 guidance while it reviewed options to create value. New guidance would give investors a clearer view of the remaining business.
Watch forThe Q3 release gives a 2026 revenue or adjusted EBITDA range for the business that will remain.
Also watch forThe Q3 release again delays 2026 guidance or gives no range for the business that will remain.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $413 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,379 loss on $10,000 · 33.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA fell 3.7% in Q2 and 7.3% for the first half. A rise would show better earnings from ongoing operations.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is above $76.8 million, its Q2 2026 level.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is at or below $76.8 million.