Ziff Davis (ZD)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$55.70-1.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ZD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -42.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -12.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ZD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, Ziff Davis, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing its preliminary unaudited financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow indicates financial health and the ability to invest in growth. It's a key metric for investors.
Supportive ifFree cash flow remains positive and exceeds the $54.0 million reported in Q2 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow becomes negative or drops a lot from last quarter.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows problems in core areas. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 revenues decline more than 5% year over year compared to $286.7 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenues stay steady or grow compared to last year, showing recovery in core areas.
Why it matters: Revenue trends in key areas can show how healthy the business is and its growth potential.
Watch forRevenue from the Technology & Shopping segment shows growth year over year in Q2 2026.
Also watch forRevenue from the Technology & Shopping segment declines year over year in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Ziff Davis is doing and how well its plans are working.
Watch forQ2 2026 earnings show an increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 2026 earnings report shows a decline in adjusted EBITDA compared to Q1 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$130 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $462 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,379 loss on $10,000 · 33.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More share buybacks would show trust in the company's value. It also shows a commitment to giving back to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $100 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $50 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health. It helps with future investments or paying off debt.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations rises a lot compared to previous quarters.
Worry ifCash flow from operations declines or remains stagnant.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth could mean a recovery, which helps Ziff Davis.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows a positive change from negative to positive growth.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays negative or drops more.
Why it matters: Better efficiency can lead to higher margins and profits. This is important for long-term success.
Supportive ifOperating income margin rises from 1.1% in Q1 2026.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls further from 1.1% in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A better margin shows Ziff Davis is managing costs and operations well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin increases from 26.8% in Q2 2026 to above 30% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 26.8% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows progress in how the company runs. It also means more financial stability.
Supportive ifNet cash from operating activities grows year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet cash from operating activities drops or stays the same compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: The sale will unlock significant cash for Ziff Davis. This could improve financial flexibility and growth potential.
Supportive ifThe sale of the Connectivity division closes. The cash proceeds are received.
Worry ifThe sale faces delays or fails to close, impacting cash flow and strategic plans.
Why it matters: Revenue trends will indicate if the company can recover from recent declines. This is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue growth shows an increase compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue continues to decline year over year or remains flat.
Why it matters: Improved efficiency helps the company make money again. It shows how well management works.
Supportive ifOperating income improves from the $(44.7) million loss in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating losses get worse or stay high. This shows ongoing inefficiencies.