Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ZILLOW GROUP INC (ZG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$34.45+9.89%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.91 → 2.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ZG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities rises to at least $200 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations rose to $200 million in Q1 2026. | Recovered | Cash from operations falls below $200 million in Q1 2026 | Cash from operations: $13M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=200 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202613,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused business with execution and sector risks, rather than a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, though its signal has recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
ZG is valued at a premium to peers, and the evidence describes that premium as unjustified. The expectations gap is moderate, while low fragility suggests no specific fragility condition is currently concentrated in the setup.
Near term, revenue growth has been strong: Rentals and Mortgages increased year over year, and overall revenue rose from $655 million to $772 million between the compared quarters. Operating losses have improved only slightly and remain negative, so progress toward better operating income is limited; guidance cuts and recent peer misses are risks to watch.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth in Rentals and Mortgages and clearer progress toward positive operating income. Fed rate cuts and strong results from sector leaders could help the sector backdrop, while a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; the recent acquisition and litigation filing add uncertainty, with limited detail in the evidence.
For the 1-to-3-year view, the growth case remains intact, but the high peer premium and ongoing losses make execution and sector conditions important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves to at least $36 million in Q1 2026 |
| Zillow is improving profit with $36 million operating income in Q1 2026. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $36 million in Q1 2026 |
Operating income: $-161M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=36 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026-161,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 • Adjusted EBITDA was $182 million in Q3, within our outlook range, and Adjusted EBITDA margin was 25%.” “2 • Q2 Adjusted EBITDA was $176 million, above the high end of our outlook range, and Adjusted EBITDA margin was 23%.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue grows about 16% in next 12 months | A primary condition in ZILLOW GROUP INC's published investment case. The stated target is >=16% YoY. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 16% in next 12 months | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase share repurchase program by $1.25 billion in 2026 | The company added $1.25 billion to its stock buyback program. | Intact | No increase in buyback authorization by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “During Q1, the company repurchased 13.5 million shares for $626 million.” “In Q2, the company repurchased 5.6 million shares for $200 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.02 → $2.89 · observed estimates
$3.37B → $3.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.02 | $3,369,294,770 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.05 | $3,371,350,610 | 15 / 29 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.05 | $3,371,350,610 | 15 / 29 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.05 | $3,371,350,610 | 15 / 29 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.02 | $3,369,291,555 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.02 | $3,369,291,555 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.05 | $3,371,872,890 | 15 / 29 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.02 | $3,369,831,913 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.02 | $3,369,831,913 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.05 | $3,369,371,560 | 15 / 28 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.01 | $3,368,049,408 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.01 | $3,368,049,408 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.05 | $3,369,442,990 | 15 / 28 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.01 | $3,368,049,408 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.97 | $3,331,762,786 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.97 | $3,331,762,786 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.97 | $3,331,762,786 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.92 | $3,300,937,940 | 15 / 29 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.92 | $3,300,937,940 | 15 / 29 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.97 | $3,331,762,786 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.97 | $3,331,762,786 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.97 | $3,331,762,786 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.97 | $3,331,762,786 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.97 | $3,331,762,786 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.97 | $3,331,762,786 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.90 | $3,297,492,306 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.90 | $3,297,493,852 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.90 | $3,297,493,852 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.90 | $3,297,493,852 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.90 | $3,297,493,852 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.90 | $3,297,494,584 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.90 | $3,297,004,799 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.90 | $3,296,989,781 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.90 | $3,296,989,781 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.90 | $3,296,989,781 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.90 | $3,296,980,238 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.90 | $3,296,980,238 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.90 | $3,296,980,238 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.90 | $3,296,980,238 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.90 | $3,295,156,291 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.90 | $3,295,156,291 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.90 | $3,295,156,291 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.90 | $3,295,156,291 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.90 | $3,295,156,291 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.88 | $3,291,285,379 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.88 | $3,291,285,379 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.88 | $3,291,285,379 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.88 | $3,291,285,379 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.88 | $3,291,285,379 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.88 | $3,291,283,837 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.88 | $3,291,283,837 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.88 | $3,291,283,837 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.88 | $3,291,283,837 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.88 | $3,291,283,837 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.88 | $3,291,303,068 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.88 | $3,291,303,068 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.88 | $3,291,303,068 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.88 | $3,291,303,068 | 13 / 21 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.91 | $3,288,386,750 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.91 | $3,288,386,750 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.91 | $3,288,386,750 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.91 | $3,288,386,750 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.91 | $3,288,386,750 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.91 | $3,288,386,750 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.91 | $3,288,386,750 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.91 | $3,288,386,750 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.91 | $3,288,386,750 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.91 | $3,284,511,778 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.90 | $3,283,026,887 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.90 | $3,283,026,887 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.90 | $3,283,026,887 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.90 | $3,283,026,887 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.90 | $3,281,756,699 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.90 | $3,281,756,699 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.90 | $3,281,757,331 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.90 | $3,281,757,331 | 12 / 21 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.90 | $3,281,757,331 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.90 | $3,281,757,331 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.90 | $3,279,197,331 | 12 / 22 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.90 | $3,279,197,331 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.90 | $3,279,197,331 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.90 | $3,279,197,331 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.90 | $3,279,197,331 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.90 | $3,279,197,331 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.89 | $3,277,748,509 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.89 | $3,277,748,509 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.89 | $3,277,748,509 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.89 | $3,277,748,509 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.89 | $3,275,684,509 | 13 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.89 | $3,273,459,480 | 13 / 22 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.