ZILLOW GROUP INC (ZG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.32-2.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Operating income improves to at least $36 million in Q1 2026: Operating income not reported vs 36.0M target.
Zillow is improving profit with $36 million operating income in Q1 2026. Cash from operations rose to $200 million in Q1 2026. The company added $1.25 billion to its stock buyback program. These show better cost control and capital use.
Legal problems and lawsuits could hurt Zillow's business and cash flow. The company cut its revenue guidance. New home-selling strategies may reduce buyer interest.
The price is about 4% below our fair value near $34. Analysts expect 16% revenue growth. Our fair value is 37% below the Street median, showing caution.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $200 million in Q1 2026
Increase cash generated from operating activities to support business operations and investments.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Cash from operating activities was $200 million in 2026-Q1 but declined sharply to $11 million in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows a decline in cash generation despite management focus.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a growth-oriented thesis, focusing on revenue expansion in Rentals and Mortgages. The current state is mixed, with management making progress but still facing challenges in operating income.
The market currently prices ZG at a premium compared to peers, indicating that expectations are high. There is an expectations gap of 0.23, suggesting that investors anticipate significant performance improvements.
Management is on track with revenue growth, particularly in Rentals and Mortgages, which saw substantial year-over-year increases. However, operating income remains negative, showing only limited progress, and the overall financial performance is neutral.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GOOGL, GOOG, and META. If these companies continue to perform well, it could positively influence ZG. Conversely, any negative guidance from these peers could impact ZG's momentum.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a better outlook. Legal and regulatory victories also reinforce confidence in the company's growth. There are no new threats to the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Net cash provided by operating activities was $11 million in Q2.”
“Net cash provided by operating activities was $200 million in Q1.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $36 million in Q1 2026
Focus on improving operating income through revenue growth and cost management to reduce net loss and enhance profitability.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income remains negative but improved slightly from -$11 million in 2025-Q4 to -$10 million in 2026-Q2. Net loss margin decreased by 80 basis points year over year in Q2. The trajectory shows limited progress toward improving operating income.
“Net loss was $4 million in Q2, net loss margin 1%, an 80-basis-point decrease year over year.”
“Net income was $46 million in Q1, net income margin 6%, a 520-basis-point increase year over year.”
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 16% in next 12 months
Breaks if: No increase in buyback authorization by mid-2026
In the next 1-3 years, ZG's performance will depend on its ability to sustain revenue growth while managing risks in a challenging sector backdrop. Not investment advice.