ZILLOW GROUP INC (ZG)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.32-2.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesInternet Content & InformationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ZG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers
ZG — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-24
Other Events. On A ugust 22, 20 26, Zillow and Redfin Corporation (“Redfin”) entered into a stipulated final order for equitable relief (“Order”) with the Federal Trade Commission (the “FTC”) and the Attorneys General of the Commonwealth of Virginia and the States of Arizona, Connecticut, New York, and Washington (collectively, the “States”) that fully resolves the FTC’s and States’ previously disclosed antitrust litigation related to the partnership between Zillow and Redfin. The Order, whic…
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control and more money coming in.
Supportive ifOperating income was $50 million or more in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income stayed below $50 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Steady cash flow growth shows strong performance. This can improve financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations is more than $200 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $200 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This outcome could change Zillow's partnerships and its place in rentals.
Watch forThe market reacted well to the FTC decision. This increased rental listings.
Also watch forThe market reacted poorly. There are concerns about the strength of the partnership.
Why it matters: Aggressive share buybacks can signal confidence in the company's value and support stock price.
Supportive ifTotal share buybacks go over $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $1 billion by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks may show that management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifZillow repurchases more than $300 million in shares in Q3.
Worry ifZillow does not repurchase any shares in Q3.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand in the housing market.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: More traffic may show users are more engaged. This can lead to more money.
Supportive ifAverage monthly unique users increase from 239 million in Q2.
Worry ifAverage monthly unique users decrease further from 239 million in Q2.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth turns positive, it may help Zillow's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth shows a positive change, exceeding 0% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in Rentals revenue growth would signal weakening demand in a key segment.
Worry ifQ3 Rentals revenue growth is above 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Rentals revenue growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash from operations is key for long-term financial health.
Supportive ifCash from operations goes over $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations stays under $10 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in Mortgages revenue growth shows weaker performance in a key area.
Worry ifQ3 Mortgages revenue growth is above 50% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Mortgages revenue growth falls below 50% year over year.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$227 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $477 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,641 loss on $10,000 · 66.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.