Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$10.53-5.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.94 → 0.91 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ZVRA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain no outstanding credit obligations | It repaid all credit obligations in 2026. | Intact | new credit obligations arise | 0 outstanding credit obligations vs 0 target March 2026 filing confirms full repayment of the senior secured loan facility, eliminating all outstanding credit obligations. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth story in healthcare, not a proven earnings compounder, because the company is still loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent financial performance and progress on stated priorities, but confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, so expectations appear restrained. The priced-in assessment is marked justified, and no fragility signals were found; however, valuation rose recently, so the relative discount has narrowed.
Near term, MIPLYFFA revenue has grown from $24.6 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $30.2 million in the second, while cash and investments rose to $260.2 million. Enrollment in the Phase 3 DiSCOVER trial also advanced, but the company remains loss-making and industry miss risk is elevated; the estimated near-term miss probability is 31%.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued MIPLYFFA growth, available resources to carry out plans, and progress in the DiSCOVER trial. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, while weaker jobs data could increase pressure on healthcare names; stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ZVRA’s business progress supports an intact long-term thesis, while losses, execution risk, and sensitivity to sector conditions remain key uncertainties. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Zevra Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=1.22 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.0 in 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.22 USD per share. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Nov 3, 20260.26 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
MIPLYFFA net revenue growth to at least $106.5 million | Zevra grows MIPLYFFA net revenue to $106.5 million in 2025. | Broken | net revenue falls below $100 million in 2025 | Revenue: $37.756M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=106.5 USD million net revenue. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202637,756,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 Zevra Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Corporate Update $37.8 million net revenue for Q3 2026, driven by $34.0 million in revenue from MIPLYFFA 45% increase in total net revenue over Q3 2025 Operational execution fueled strong cash position of $270.9 million Company to host conference call and webcast TODAY, November 3, 2026, at 4:30 p.m.” “MIPLYFFA® (arimoclomol) Highlights • U.S.: Received 13 MIPLYFFA prescription enrollment forms for Niemann-Pick disease type C (NPC) during Q3 2026, bringing the total to 197 since product launch.” Revenue was $37.756 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.93 → $0.91 · observed estimates
$0.18B → $0.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.93 | $182,246,389 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.11 | $175,991,780 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.11 | $175,991,780 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.14 | $175,991,780 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.87 | $175,991,667 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.05 | $173,078,560 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.84 | $173,078,333 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.05 | $173,078,560 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.84 | $173,078,333 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.05 | $173,078,560 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.05 | $173,078,560 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.05 | $173,078,560 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.05 | $173,078,560 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.84 | $173,078,333 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.04 | $176,978,330 | 4 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.95 | $177,016,278 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.94 | $176,977,444 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.94 | $176,978,378 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.91 | $177,594,989 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.91 | $177,594,989 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.