Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (ZVRA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.40-1.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ZVRA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ZVRA — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-03-16
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 12, 2026, the Company repaid in full all outstanding obligations under that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of April 5, 2024, by and among the Company, HCR Stafford Fund II, L.P., HCR Potomac Fund II, L.P., and Perceptive Credit Holdings IV, LP (collectively, the “Lenders”), and Alter Domus (US) LLC, as administrative agent (the “Credit Agreement”). The Credit Agreement provided for a senior secured loan facility in an aggregate prin…
Why it matters: More enrollments show strong demand for MIPLYFFA. This helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifMIPLYFFA prescription enrollments exceed 200 by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifEnrollments remain below 170 by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Paying back debts is key for financial health. It affects investor trust and future money.
Worry ifThe company will pay back at least 25% of its debts next quarter.
Less concerning ifNo news on paying back debts or an increase in debts.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights on revenue and expenses. This shapes future expectations.
Watch forEarnings beat expectations with a net revenue increase of over 15%.
Also watch forEarnings miss expectations with a net revenue decrease of more than 5%.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would confirm the positive trend seen in Q1 and support investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 net revenue grows more than 75% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 2026 net revenue growth falls below 60% YoY.
Why it matters: If healthcare sector revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit Zevra. It may indicate a shift in market conditions.
Supportive ifHealthcare sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifHealthcare sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Updates on cash will show financial health. They will also show the ability to grow.
Supportive ifCash is still over $236.8 million after selling the SDX portfolio.
Worry ifCash falls below $236.8 million. This raises worries about having enough money.
Why it matters: Continued growth in MIPLYFFA revenue shows strong demand and market acceptance. This is key for Zevra's future.
Supportive ifQ3 MIPLYFFA made over $30.2 million in net revenue. This shows strong ongoing performance.
Worry ifQ3 MIPLYFFA made less than $30.2 million in net revenue. This suggests weakening demand.
Why it matters: More enrollment shows strong interest. This could lead to successful trial results and future products.
Supportive ifEnrollment in the Phase 3 DiSCOVER trial is over 66 patients. This shows strong engagement.
Worry ifEnrollment stops or drops below 66 patients. This indicates possible issues with the trial.
Why it matters: A strong cash position helps Zevra fund operations and grow on its own.
Supportive ifCash and investments rise above $260.2 million. This shows financial strength.
Worry ifCash and investments drop below $260.2 million. This raises worries about financial health.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$217 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $543 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,553 loss on $10,000 · 35.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.