Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Alcoa (AA)
NYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.42-5.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.05 → 5.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain aluminum production and shipments within guided ranges in 2026 | A supporting condition in Alcoa's published investment case. The stated target is Aluminum production 2.4 to 2.6 million metric tons; shipments 2.6 to 2.8 million tons in 2026. | Broken | Production or shipments fall below 2.4 million tons in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical materials business with a cheap-versus-peers valuation, but elevated risk and fragile earnings quality. The multi-year view is on watch: recent performance is below its industry cohort, and company quality has weakened, despite an earnings beat and ongoing operating progress.
AA is assessed as cheap versus peers, with an expectations gap that points to limited optimism already embedded in expectations. The supplied evidence says pricing reflects weak execution quality, but not a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence; confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near term, recent production gains and improved refinery stability support continued operational progress, while maintaining shipment projections remains ongoing work. Management has advanced the AliGroup acquisition, but it has not closed, and execution quality remains fragile. A guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful near-term risk, even though the stated miss-risk tier is quiet.
The multi-year thesis depends on AA sustaining production gains, keeping refinery operations stable, and completing the AliGroup acquisition. In the near term, guidance and signals from sector bellwethers CENX and KALU matter: continued strong results could preserve the sector tailwind, while weaker results could erode it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AA combines peer-relative cheapness and operating progress with elevated risk and fragile execution. The thesis remains on watch until production, guidance, and the acquisition show sustained follow-through. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Manage debt and redeem $219 million senior notes in 2026-Q2 |
| A supporting condition in Alcoa's published investment case. The stated target is Redeem $219 million senior notes by 2026-Q2 and maintain strong balance sheet. |
| Under Pressure |
| Failure to redeem notes or worsening debt metrics |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “o On September 23, 2026, Alcoa completed offerings of $1.5 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.625 percent senior notes due 2034 and $1.1 billion aggregate principal amount of 6.875 percent senior notes due 2036 (the Notes).” “Key Actions • Notice of notes redemption: On April 14, 2026, the Company announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Alcoa Nederland Holding B.V., issued a notice to redeem the remaining $219 million aggregate principal amount of its outstanding 6.125% notes due in 2028.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain aluminum production and reduce costs after San Ciprián restart | The San Ciprián smelter restart is done, helping production and cutting costs. | Under Pressure | Production falls below 600,000 tons or costs rise after restart | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete acquisition of South32's aluminum assets and realize synergies | Alcoa is buying South32's aluminum assets for $4.1 billion. | Improving | Acquisition fails to close or synergies fall short of $900 million | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.84 → $5.48 · observed estimates
$15.26B → $14.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.84 | $15,257,558,140 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.93 | $15,215,428,300 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.20 | $15,230,053,009 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.20 | $15,230,129,932 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.09 | $15,156,780,989 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.09 | $15,156,780,989 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.09 | $15,156,780,989 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.09 | $15,156,780,989 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.06 | $15,156,780,989 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.94 | $15,154,319,450 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.94 | $15,154,319,450 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.94 | $15,154,428,353 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.11 | $15,258,274,507 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.11 | $15,258,274,507 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.11 | $15,258,277,484 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.00 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.00 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.00 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.05 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.05 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.05 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.05 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.05 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.05 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.05 | $15,194,545,210 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.05 | $15,287,468,287 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.05 | $15,287,496,372 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.18 | $15,353,781,499 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.18 | $15,353,781,499 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.07 | $15,195,835,346 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.99 | $15,167,636,641 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.99 | $15,167,636,641 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.99 | $15,167,636,641 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.99 | $15,241,636,641 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.02 | $15,167,636,641 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.98 | $15,141,622,987 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.98 | $15,141,622,987 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.88 | $15,122,650,019 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.88 | $15,122,650,019 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.88 | $15,116,425,843 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.93 | $15,134,007,231 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.58 | $14,899,776,462 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.48 | $14,862,945,175 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.