Alcoa (AA)
NYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
$38.42-5.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AA — debt issuance
Dated 2026-09-23
Other Events. Concurrently with the completion of the Notes Offering, the Company terminated all remaining outstanding commitments in respect of the senior unsecured 364-day bridge term loan credit facility entered into in connection with the Acquisition.
Why it matters: Alcoa has raised output for six straight quarters. Meeting its full-year ranges would show that the gains can last.
Supportive ifFull-year alumina production is 9.5–9.6 million tons and shipments are 11.5–11.6 million tons. Aluminum production is 2.4–2.6 million tons and shipments are 2.6–2.8 million tons.
Worry ifAlcoa cuts any of these 2026 ranges, or reports full-year output or shipments below the low end.
Why it matters: Closing would complete Alcoa’s largest named deal and add South32 assets. A delay could leave Alcoa carrying deal debt longer.
Watch forAlcoa files a closing notice by June 30, 2027, after required approvals are met.
Also watch forAlcoa reports that the first-half 2027 closing window was missed, or a closing condition did not pass.
Why it matters: The sale could bring cash from the site, with more tied to approved data center capacity. Permits and construction steps remain conditions.
Supportive ifAlcoa announces closing within six months and receives at least $50 million.
Worry ifThe sale has not closed by April 15, 2027, or required permits and construction steps are still incomplete.
Why it matters: Alcoa flagged higher raw material costs and planned repairs. Larger cost hits could weaken aluminum earnings.
Worry ifAlcoa reports Q4 aluminum segment costs were more than $60 million worse than the prior quarter. Raw materials, repairs, and alumina costs drove the increase.
Less concerning ifThe combined Q4 impact from those costs is $60 million or less, as guided.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $550 loss on $10,000 · 5.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,488 loss on $10,000 · 54.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.