Alcoa (AA)
NYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.97-2.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsAluminumSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers
AA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-16
The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall be deemed “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing made under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in suc…
Why it matters: An increase shows recovery in shipments and prices. This supports overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifAluminum segment revenue goes up in Q2 2026.
Worry ifAluminum segment revenue goes down in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The assessment will affect future mining work. It could change production and revenue.
Watch forWA EPA gives a good assessment for Alcoa's mining work.
Also watch forWA EPA gives a bad assessment for Alcoa's mining work.
Why it matters: Lower production costs will improve Alcoa's profitability. This will show the benefits of the smelter restart.
Supportive ifProduction costs decrease by at least 10% in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifProduction costs remain flat or increase in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show recovery from the recent drop in production. It would help revenue grow.
Supportive ifQ2 alumina production is 2.4 million metric tons or more.
Worry ifQ2 alumina production is less than 2.4 million metric tons.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$214 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $559 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,882 loss on $10,000 · 48.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Closing this deal is key to expanding Alcoa's aluminum assets and market position. It is expected to boost earnings and cash flow immediately.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in the first half of 2027. This is after getting all needed approvals.
Worry ifThe acquisition may face big regulatory problems. It could be delayed past the expected timeline.
Why it matters: Updates on the smelter show Alcoa can boost production and meet demand.
Supportive ifReports show more aluminum is made from successful smelter work.
Worry ifProduction levels stay the same or drop due to operational problems.
Why it matters: Tariff changes can affect Alcoa's costs and pricing. This impacts profits.
Worry ifAluminum tariff costs on U.S. imports from Canada increase by more than $35 million sequentially.
Less concerning ifAluminum tariff costs go down or stay the same.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better financial health. It helps management focus on improving cash flow.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show financial health and how well operations are doing. A miss could mean bigger issues.
Watch forEarnings are better than analyst expectations. This shows strong revenue and profit growth.
Also watch forEarnings fall short of expectations. This shows problems with operations or market pressures.
Why it matters: Earnings will show how well Alcoa manages costs and prices. It will indicate the health of its operations.
Watch forThe earnings report shows adjusted EBITDA rises by at least 10% from Q1 2026.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA falls or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Alcoa is doing financially. They will also show operational success.
Watch forEarnings are better than what analysts expected. Adjusted net income is over $562 million.
Also watch forEarnings do not meet expectations. Adjusted net income is below $562 million.