Reading AAP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAP free→Reading AAP? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AAP free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto PartsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and risk is elevated, while earnings quality is robust, indicating strong cash backing for reported profits. The sector backdrop is a headwind, which could impact growth. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. If AAP cuts guidance on the next call, that would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $60.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $61 AAP trades at 19× p/e, in line with its 16× p/e peer median. Our $57 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Analysts: $54–$65. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.64x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.82 → $0.80 (-2.5% / 30d). 6 raised, 12 cut, 23 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 9 maintained. 12% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.9% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$214.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$506.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,143.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims may show that people are less confident. This could hurt sales for Advance Auto Parts.
Confirms:Weekly unemployment claims are above 300,000.
Disproves:Weekly unemployment claims are below 300,000.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AAP yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 21, 2026, Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release setting forth its financial results for its first quarter ended April 25, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Report and is hereby incorporated by reference in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$54.00 – $65.00 (median $60.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-05-26
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2024-Q2, 2024-Q3, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Automotive Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | full | elevated |
CVNA Carvana | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ORLY O’Reilly Automotive | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
AZO AutoZone | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PAG Penske Automotive Group | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 62 of 100 | full | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to allocate approximately $300 million for capital expenditures in 2026.
Aim to generate approximately $100 million in free cash flow for the fiscal year 2026.
Set a revenue target range of $8,485 million to $8,575 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: This range is crucial for confirming growth targets. Missing it could signal deeper issues.
Confirms one read:Q2 revenue reported within the target range of $8,485M to $8,575M.
Confirms the other:Q2 revenue was below the target range. This shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: Achieving this cash flow target shows financial health and ability to invest in growth.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported at or above $100M for the quarter.
Disproves:Free cash flow was under $100M. This raises worries about financial stability.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a shift in consumer spending trends. This could hurt the stock's outlook.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will give important information about performance. This could change how investors feel.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows better than expected results.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows worse than expected results.
Why it matters: Consumer spending trends will impact sales. A drop could signal broader economic issues.
Confirms one read:Consumer spending increased after the CPI report. This shows strong demand.
Confirms the other:Consumer spending fell after the CPI report. This suggests weaker demand.
Why it matters: Staying at this level is important for growth and efficiency.
Confirms:Capital spending was at or near $300M.
Disproves:Capital spending was well below $300M. This suggests possible cuts.