Apple Inc (AAPL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyConsumer ElectronicsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$349.51+5.31%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyConsumer ElectronicsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 36.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AAPL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-01
CEO — Tim Cook: This filing details the compensation arrangements for the planned transition of Tim Cook to Executive Chair and John Ternus to CEO, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Services has set new records and grown for several quarters. Slower growth would put that trend in doubt.
Supportive ifQuarterly Services revenue grows more than 10% year over year from the Q3 base of $30.739 billion.
Worry ifQuarterly Services revenue grows 10% or less year over year, or falls below $30.739 billion.
Why it matters: iPhone made up about half of Q3 sales. A sharp slowdown would weaken the recent growth trend.
Worry ifQ4 iPhone revenue grows less than 10% year over year, or falls year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 iPhone revenue grows at least 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Tariff refunds lifted Q3 gross margin by about 2 points. Results without that boost will show the underlying margin trend.
Worry ifThe next reported gross margin falls below 48.1%, two points under Q3’s 50.1%.
Less concerning ifThe next reported gross margin is at least 50.1% without a similar refund boost.
Why it matters: The planned handoff from Tim Cook is a key leadership change. A smooth start would support continuity.
Watch forApple confirms John Ternus has taken over as CEO, with Tim Cook moving to Executive Chair as planned.
Also watch forApple delays or changes the planned handoff, or reports a sudden change in either leader’s role.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $202 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,380 loss on $10,000 · 13.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Apple introduced its new Siri AI at WWDC26. Clear use or sales data would show whether the launch is gaining traction.
Supportive ifApple reports that more people use Siri AI, or links it to higher device sales in a results update.
Worry ifApple reports no use or sales measure for Siri AI in its next two results updates, or delays the launch.