Apple Inc (AAPL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyConsumer ElectronicsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$319.97-2.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyConsumer ElectronicsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAPL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 22.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
AAPL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-09-01
CEO — Tim Cook: This filing details the compensation arrangements for the planned transition of Tim Cook to Executive Chair and John Ternus to CEO, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Cash flow trends show how well the company runs. They also show financial health.
Watch forOperating cash flow is up from last quarter.
Also watch forOperating cash flow is down from last quarter.
Why it matters: The transition from Tim Cook to John Ternus could affect company direction and performance. It's a key leadership change.
Watch forThe company shows good performance in the quarters after the CEO change.
Also watch forThe company shows poor performance in the quarters after the CEO change.
Why it matters: Changes in capital return plans may show how management feels about future cash flows.
Watch forManagement says they will increase the share buyback program to over $100 billion.
Also watch forManagement cuts the share buyback program or lowers the dividend payout.
Why it matters: Successful AI and software innovations may improve Apple's competitive edge. This could lead to growth.
Supportive ifManagement reports revenue or user growth from new AI features in the next earnings report.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows no clear impact from the new AI features.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$99 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $213 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,380 loss on $10,000 · 13.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean higher costs or pricing pressure. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 50%.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays at or above 50%.
Why it matters: Higher dividends would show strong cash flow. This means the company cares about its shareholders.
Supportive ifThe board declares a dividend increase above the current $0.27 per share.
Worry ifThe board maintains the dividend at $0.27 per share or decreases it.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows a commitment to giving back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a cash dividend increase above $0.27 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the cash dividend from the current $0.27 per share.
Why it matters: The CEO change may impact company plans and how investors feel.
Watch forJohn Ternus shares new plans or changes in the first 3 months.
Also watch forNo significant changes or announcements from John Ternus within the first 3 months.
Why it matters: A drop in the growth rate of active devices may mean the market is full. This could affect future revenue.
Worry ifThe growth rate of active devices is lower than in past quarters.
Less concerning ifThe number of active devices keeps growing at the same or a higher rate.
Why it matters: Metrics on AI and software will show how well new products are doing. This indicates their success.
Watch forManagement says users are very active. They are spending more money on new AI features.
Also watch forManagement says users are not very active. They are not spending much money on new AI features.
Why it matters: Ternus' vision will guide Apple's future. This could affect investor confidence and stock performance.
Watch forJohn Ternus outlines a clear strategic vision for Apple within the next quarter.
Also watch forJohn Ternus has not shared a clear strategic vision during this time.
Why it matters: Continued growth in Services revenue is key for Apple's overall performance. It shows how well Apple can expand its business beyond hardware.
Supportive ifServices revenue exceeds $30.739 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifServices revenue falls below $30 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in the active device base shows Apple's ability to attract and retain customers. This supports future revenue growth.
Supportive ifInstalled base of active devices reaches a new all-time high in Q3 2026.
Worry ifInstalled base of active devices does not grow or declines in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The upcoming earnings report will provide insights into Apple's financial health and growth trajectory. It will be crucial to see if growth trends continue.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $2.02 in Q3 2026.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $2.00 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The transition from Tim Cook to John Ternus could affect company strategy and investor confidence. It’s important to see how this leadership change is received.
Watch forInvestors are happy about the stock. This is after the CEO transition announcement.
Also watch forInvestors are unhappy about the stock. This is after the CEO transition announcement.