Apple Inc (AAPL)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyConsumer ElectronicsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$310.66-0.64%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $310.66. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $311 AAPL trades at 38× p/e, below its 43× p/e peer median, but our blended $244 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $253–$400. Note: our $244 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($253–$400). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $343 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $320.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $289.02 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $288.35 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $36.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$253.00 – $400.00 (median $320.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-06-22
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 65% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 6.1 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $7.80/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $224.30 |
| 21.4 |
| 10.64 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $189.88 | 21.6 | 8.77 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $355.74 | 43.0 | 8.27 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $148.06 | 4.8 | 30.66 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $61.97 | 7.5 | 8.27 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $39.29 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $284.71 | 34.4 | 8.27 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $343.00 | 43.0 | 7.97 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $251.59 | 21.6 | 11.62 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $358.52 | 43.0 | 8.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $146.92 | 4.8 | 30.42 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $62.46 | 7.5 | 8.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $286.93 | 34.4 | 8.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $303.51 | 21.6 | 14.02 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $304.44 | 43.0 | 7.08 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $124.76 | 4.8 | 25.83 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $53.03 | 7.5 | 7.08 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $243.65 | 34.4 | 7.08 | Analyst | high |