American Battery Technology Co. (ABAT)
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.78+2.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
The Nevada facility is growing fast. Revenue rose from $0.9M to $7.8M in Q3. Revenue grew 64% from Q2 to Q3. The company made its first positive gross margin. It signed a new deal with the US Department of Energy.
The company lost money last year and this year. Revenue is still small at $7.8M. Analysts expect losses to continue through 2027. The stock price dropped 33% from its high. The business is still risky and unproven.
The market expects very high growth but also ongoing losses. Our fair value is about $0.40, near the current price. The stock price reflects big hopes for growth but also high risk.
Breaks if: no new expansion agreements signed by 2026-H1
Pursue and finalize agreements to expand facility capacity and capabilities, including government partnerships.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround situation with a focus on growth in the lithium sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial results have been weak and the company has a history of earnings misses.
The market seems to assume a high level of fragility given the expensive valuation, which does not fully reflect the company's recent performance issues. There is an expectations gap that suggests the market is not fully accounting for the risks associated with ABAT's current operations.
Fundamentals are likely to remain under pressure in the near term due to a high probability of an earnings miss. However, there are signs of progress in revenue growth from the Nevada facility, which could provide some support if management can maintain this momentum.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their priorities, particularly the development of the lithium refinery and the ramp-up of operations. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial; if they continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for ABAT.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $4.7 million in 2026-Q3
Breaks if: quarterly revenue growth falls below 20% in 2026-Q3
In the next 1 to 3 years, ABAT's outlook is uncertain, with significant risks and challenges ahead. Not investment advice.