American Battery Technology Co. (ABAT)
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.20-7.36%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 211.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 201.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers
ABAT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-16
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 14, 2026, American Battery Technology Company (the “Company”) posted an investor presentation to its website used in an earnings call pertaining to the financial results for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026. On September 14, 2026, the Company issued a press release relating to the Company’s financial results for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026. The presentation and the press release are furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exh…
Why it matters: The Nevada plant had record revenue and gross profit in Q4. A repeat would show that the gains are holding.
Supportive ifIn the Nov. 5 earnings report, revenue exceeds $8.2 million and gross profit exceeds $1.3 million.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $8.2 million or gross profit falls below $1.3 million.
Why it matters: The $57 million grant supports a $115 million first phase. On-time work and grant payments would show the project is moving ahead.
Supportive ifABAT reports progress on building the first processing train. It also reports DOE grant funds received against the $57 million award.
Worry ifABAT reports a project delay or a missed grant milestone. It may also report losing any part of the reinstated $57 million award.
Why it matters: ABAT reported $50.3 million in cash and no debt at Q4. Cash levels matter as it builds facilities and advances the mine project.
Worry ifCash falls below $50.3 million, or ABAT reports new debt or financing needed for current work.
Less concerning ifCash stays at or above $50.3 million, with no debt, while the company reports progress on its projects.
Why it matters: Most black mass sales had been to foreign customers. The license may let those sales continue under the new export rules.
Supportive ifABAT reports sales of exported black mass under the license. A later results report gives the sales revenue.
Worry ifABAT reports that exports are blocked, the license is not usable, or export sales stop.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$312 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $875 loss on $10,000 · 8.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,750 loss on $10,000 · 77.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.