American Battery Technology Co. (ABAT)
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.78+2.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsWaste ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABAT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 614.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 586.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
ABAT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, American Battery Technology Company (the “Company”) posted an investor presentation to its website used in an earnings call pertaining to the financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. On May 11, 2026, the Company issued a press release relating to the Company’s financial results for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. The presentation and the press release are furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and Exhibit…
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth from the Nevada facility shows management's plans are working. It can signal future success.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue from the Nevada facility goes up by more than 50% from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from the Nevada facility goes up by less than 20% from Q2.
Why it matters: The outcome will impact revenue since black mass sales are a major revenue source. A denial could hurt financial performance.
Worry ifThe U.S. Department of Commerce grants an exception allowing black mass exports.
Less concerning ifThe Department of Commerce denies the request. This stops black mass exports.
Why it matters: New deals for facility expansion show growth and more operations. This is key for capacity.
Supportive ifLook for news on new deals or partnerships for facility expansion.
Worry ifNo new agreements or delays in expansion plans.
Why it matters: This report will give details on financial health and progress.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better financial numbers than before.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows losses. It also misses what people expected.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$331 on $10,000 · ±3.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $968 loss on $10,000 · 9.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,199 loss on $10,000 · 82.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This grant supports the construction of the Tonopah Flats Lithium Project. Its reinstatement shows federal support for ABTC's growth.
Supportive ifConfirmation of the reinstatement of the $57 million grant from the U.S. Department of Energy.
Worry ifThe grant is not reinstated or further delays occur in the funding process.
Why it matters: If they exceed this revenue target, it shows the recycling facility is doing well and growing.
Supportive ifQ4 FY26 revenue reported above $8.2 million.
Worry ifQ4 FY26 revenue reported below $8.2 million.
Why it matters: Finishing this review is key for the Tonopah Flats Lithium Project. It shows progress toward commercialization.
Supportive ifCompletion of the NEPA review process for the Tonopah Flats Lithium Project.
Worry ifDelays or complications in the NEPA review process.
Why it matters: The DOE agreement could give important funding for operations and growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the DOE funding is being used well in operations.
Worry ifNo measurable progress reported from the DOE funding within six months.
Why it matters: Making more money shows strong performance. It also matches management's growth goals.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was over $7.8 million. This shows growth is continuing.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was under $7.8 million. This suggests growth is slowing.
Why it matters: Finishing this phase is key for scaling lithium production. It supports U.S. energy security.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the completion of the first phase of the Tonopah Flats Lithium Project.
Worry ifDelays in finishing the project or missing scheduled goals.
Why it matters: New agreements can show growth. They can also increase production capacity.
Supportive ifNew agreements for facility expansion were announced. This goes beyond the $115.5M project.
Worry ifNo new agreements were announced. This shows a stop in expansion efforts.
Why it matters: The results will show how well the company is growing and running its operations. Investors will look at the company's financial health and future plans.
Supportive ifThe full audited financial results are out. They show revenue growth over $8.2 million.
Worry ifThe results show revenue under $8.2 million or big problems in operations.
Why it matters: Stable leaders can help investors feel confident. It can also make operations better.
Supportive ifThere have been no changes in leadership after recent promotions.
Worry ifLook for more changes in executives or problems in leadership.
Why it matters: Updates on this deal show progress in growing operations and getting funds.
Supportive ifNew agreements or milestones reached under the DOE deal will be announced.
Worry ifNo updates or news regarding the DOE agreement for an extended period.
Why it matters: Progress on the DOE grant supports the Tonopah Flats Lithium Project. This is key for funding and growth.
Supportive ifLook for updates on the lithium refinery project from the DOE grant.
Worry ifWatch for delays or problems in the project timeline.