Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Airbnb (ABNB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$170.13-3.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.26 → 6.26 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 30 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 31 to 30; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ABNB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Repay $2.0 billion convertible senior notes | The company repaid $2 billion in convertible notes, improving its balance sheet. | Intact | Convertible notes repayment not completed by 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with robust earnings quality and stable management, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is on watch: revenue and margin priorities are on track, but recent financial performance is neutral and below its industry cohort.
Valuation is stretched, at a 1.75 premium versus peers, and it has risen recently through re-rating, meaning investors are assigning a higher valuation. The expectations gap is 0.23, but the evidence does not specify exactly what growth or earnings expectations that represents.
Near term, management’s raised third-quarter revenue guidance and 2026 margin goal support continued growth and operating leverage, or earning more profit from each dollar of revenue. New services and experiences are expanding quickly, though progress across those offerings is mixed. Recent results include both an earnings miss and a later earnings beat, so execution remains a risk despite a low near-term miss watch tier.
The multi-year view hinges on sustaining mid-teens revenue growth and meeting the raised margin goal while new offerings scale. Near term, another guidance cut after a recent increase would damage management credibility; continued strength or weakness among travel and leisure peers could also shape the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, the business has credible growth and margin priorities, but stretched valuation leaves less room for execution to disappoint. The thesis remains on watch, with delivery and guidance credibility as key tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Airbnb's published investment case. The stated target is >=35% Adjusted EBITDA margin. |
| Intact |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 30% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Manage regulatory challenges in key markets | A supporting condition in Airbnb's published investment case. The stated target is No material revenue impact from new regulations in FY26. | Intact | New regulations cause >5% revenue decline in FY26 | No material revenue impact reported vs <5% decline target Q2 2026 earnings beat; NYC regulatory headlines noted but no quantified revenue impact provided. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Accelerate revenue growth to low to mid teens | A primary condition in Airbnb's published investment case. The stated target is >=14% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 10% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 16.54% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=14% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202616.537468 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “¦ For 2026, we now expect to deliver a full-year Adjusted EBITDA Margin of at least 35.5%, an improvement from 2025 that reflects stronger topline growth and underlying operating leverage in our core business, while continuing to invest behind opportunities to drive future growth.” “The upward revision to our revenue outlook reflects meaningful progress across our growth initiatives and improvements to monetization through a simplified fee structure and our insurance programs, which are expected to lift our full-year take rate.” Revenue was $3.608 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.04 → $6.26 · observed estimates
$15.42B → $15.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.04 | $15,424,032,830 | 39 / 41 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.04 | $15,430,711,180 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.04 | $15,430,711,180 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.05 | $15,439,274,127 | 29 / 32 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.04 | $15,430,711,180 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.03 | $15,429,632,600 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.04 | $15,438,141,627 | 29 / 32 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.03 | $15,430,595,700 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.04 | $15,439,849,712 | 29 / 32 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.03 | $15,430,595,700 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.03 | $15,430,595,700 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.03 | $15,430,595,700 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.03 | $15,430,595,700 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.03 | $15,430,595,700 | 39 / 42 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.04 | $15,435,233,010 | 40 / 43 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.07 | $15,526,618,080 | 38 / 43 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.07 | $15,526,618,080 | 38 / 43 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.07 | $15,526,618,080 | 38 / 43 |
| 2026-08-11 | $6.16 | $15,689,158,730 | 40 / 43 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.17 | $15,719,647,100 | 40 / 43 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.17 | $15,719,647,100 | 40 / 43 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.04 | $15,438,092,567 | 30 / 33 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.04 | $15,438,092,567 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.04 | $15,438,092,567 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.04 | $15,438,092,567 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.04 | $15,438,092,567 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.04 | $15,438,092,567 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.04 | $15,438,092,567 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.20 | $15,749,448,831 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.20 | $15,749,448,831 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.20 | $15,749,448,831 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.20 | $15,749,448,831 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.20 | $15,751,278,008 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.20 | $15,751,278,008 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.20 | $15,751,278,008 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.20 | $15,751,278,008 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.20 | $15,751,285,088 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.20 | $15,751,285,088 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.20 | $15,751,285,088 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.20 | $15,751,285,088 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.20 | $15,760,504,964 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.20 | $15,760,512,281 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.20 | $15,760,512,281 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.20 | $15,760,512,281 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.20 | $15,760,512,281 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.20 | $15,760,512,281 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.20 | $15,760,515,503 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.21 | $15,769,557,659 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.21 | $15,769,557,659 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.22 | $15,777,343,908 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.22 | $15,777,343,908 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.23 | $15,786,734,152 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.23 | $15,786,734,152 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.23 | $15,786,734,152 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.23 | $15,786,734,152 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.25 | $15,800,715,132 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.25 | $15,800,715,132 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.25 | $15,800,715,132 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.25 | $15,805,739,522 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.25 | $15,805,739,522 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.25 | $15,805,727,327 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.25 | $15,805,727,327 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.25 | $15,805,729,237 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.25 | $15,805,729,237 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.25 | $15,805,729,237 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.25 | $15,805,729,237 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.25 | $15,805,729,237 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.25 | $15,805,741,222 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.25 | $15,805,741,222 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.25 | $15,805,741,222 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.25 | $15,805,741,222 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.25 | $15,805,741,222 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.26 | $15,814,787,402 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.26 | $15,814,787,402 | 31 / 33 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.26 | $15,814,787,402 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.26 | $15,814,787,402 | 30 / 33 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.26 | $15,812,812,402 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.26 | $15,812,812,402 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.26 | $15,812,812,402 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.26 | $15,812,812,402 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.26 | $15,810,378,347 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.26 | $15,810,371,267 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.26 | $15,810,371,267 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.26 | $15,810,371,267 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.26 | $15,810,647,442 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.26 | $15,810,647,442 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.26 | $15,810,640,362 | 30 / 33 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.26 | $15,810,640,362 | 30 / 33 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.25 | $15,810,640,577 | 30 / 33 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.26 | $15,812,976,877 | 30 / 31 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.26 | $15,812,976,877 | 30 / 31 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.26 | $15,812,976,877 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.26 | $15,812,976,877 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.26 | $15,812,976,877 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.26 | $15,812,976,877 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.26 | $15,812,976,877 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.26 | $15,811,776,082 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.26 | $15,811,776,082 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.26 | $15,811,776,082 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.26 | $15,811,776,082 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.26 | $15,811,776,082 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.26 | $15,811,776,082 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.26 | $15,811,775,867 | 30 / 32 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.26 | $15,815,321,204 | 30 / 32 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 26 Buy / Strong Buy · 16 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.