Airbnb (ABNB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$170.13-3.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABNB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
ABNB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Airbnb, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. In the Letter, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on May 7, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Letter is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on F…
Why it matters: Airbnb raised its 2026 outlook after strong Q2 results. Q3 revenue will test whether that growth continues.
Watch forOn the Nov. 5 earnings call, Q3 revenue is at or above $4.69B, and year-over-year growth is at least 15%.
Also watch forQ3 revenue is below $4.69B, or year-over-year growth is below 15%.
Why it matters: AI resolved nearly 45% of support issues without a human agent in Q2. Cost per booking fell about 16%. A stall could limit the savings from AI.
Worry ifNo human agent resolves 45% or fewer support issues. Support cost per booking does not fall year over year.
Less concerning ifNo human agent resolves more than 45% of support issues. Support cost per booking falls further year over year.
Why it matters: Airbnb Experiences supply grew nearly 80% in Q2, and seats booked gained pace. More seats booked would show that new supply is drawing demand.
Supportive ifAirbnb reports year-over-year growth in Experiences seats booked for Q3 that is faster than Q2.
Worry ifAirbnb reports Q3 Experiences seats booked growth at or below Q2's growth pace.
Why it matters: Bookings grew 10% in Q2. Management looked for low double-digit growth in Q3, so a slower pace could weaken the demand picture.
Worry ifQ3 Nights and Seats Booked growth is below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Nights and Seats Booked growth is 10% or higher year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $295 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,148 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.