Airbnb (ABNB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$181.94-1.79%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABNB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 51.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ABNB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Airbnb, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a Shareholder Letter (the “Letter”) announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. In the Letter, the Company also announced that it would be holding a conference call on May 7, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET to discuss its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Letter is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on F…
Why it matters: A slowdown in bookings growth may show less demand. This could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifNights and Seats Booked growth reported below 9% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifNights and Seats Booked growth reported at or above 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: AI helps with efficiency. Improvements can lower costs and make the user experience better.
Supportive ifAI assistant solves over 50% of support issues without human help in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAI assistant resolves less than 40% of support issues without human agents in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More people using the service can boost bookings and revenue. It helps customers.
Supportive ifAdoption of Reserve Now, Pay Later exceeds 70% of eligible bookings in Q2.
Worry ifAdoption of Reserve Now, Pay Later falls below 50% of eligible bookings in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong growth in first-time bookers shows good expansion. It also shows demand in new markets.
Supportive ifFirst-time booker growth was above 10% year-over-year in key markets.
Worry ifFirst-time booker growth was below 8% year-over-year in key markets.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,721 loss on $10,000 · 17.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower growth in new users could signal challenges in attracting new customers.
Worry ifFirst-time booker growth reported below 10%.
Less concerning ifFirst-time booker growth exceeds 12%.
Why it matters: More cancellations could hurt revenue. It may show weakness in some markets.
Worry ifCancellations are going up in EMEA and Asia Pacific. This is due to global tensions.
Less concerning ifCancellations stay steady or drop even with global tensions.
Why it matters: This guidance reflects strong demand and momentum in Airbnb's business. It shows how well the company is performing compared to its targets.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue guidance confirmed at $4.69B to $4.77B, indicating 15% to 17% growth.
Worry ifGuidance for Q3 2026 revenue growth falls below 15%.
Why it matters: A margin above 35.5% shows strong efficiency and profit. Airbnb controls costs well while growing.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 35.5% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 35% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in these areas shows Airbnb can attract more users. It shows innovation and demand.
Supportive ifAirbnb Services and Experiences grow by almost 80% from last year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGrowth in Airbnb Services and Experiences slows to below 20% year-over-year in Q3 2026.