Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$149.15+0.08%
Close 2026-10-22 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.87 → 4.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 2, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Debt reduction and improved leverage ratio | A supporting condition in Arcosa, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA <= 2.0x. | Intact | Net Debt to EBITDA rises above 2.3x next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 1, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a business-improvement and growth thesis, not a clear-cut durable compounder today. Utility structures are showing strong demand, but management has been volatile and recent performance has been neutral; the multi-year view is on watch.
ACA is rated cheap versus peers, but the evidence also tags it as stretched, so the valuation picture is mixed. The expectations gap is 0.23, and no major fragility signals were identified; confidence in the overall assessment has eased from high to medium.
Near term, erratic earnings surprises and a run of consecutive misses remain risks, even though the stated miss risk is low. In 2026 Q2, utility and related structures revenue rose 12%, backlog reached $648.1 million, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA declined to 1.9x; these support the growth and financial-flexibility priorities, while portfolio simplification remains a watch item.
The multi-year thesis depends on ACA sustaining utility-structure growth and converting its backlog into results, while continuing to simplify the business and reduce leverage. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility; sector results from JCI, MAS, and CSL may also signal whether the Industrials backdrop is improving or weakening.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACA has evidence of demand and improving leverage, but uneven earnings, management volatility, and sector headwinds leave execution as the central test. The valuation signals are mixed, and the thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Arcosa, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted EBITDA margin >= 18%. |
| Improving |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 17% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 1, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full year 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance | Management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.6-$2.7 billion and EBITDA to $545-$585 million. | Intact | Full year revenue or EBITDA falls below $2.6B or $545M respectively | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 1, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth in Construction Products and Engineered Structures | Arcosa focuses on growing its Construction Products and Engineered Structures segments. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% in these segments next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 1, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Utility structures revenue growth and margin expansion | Utility structures revenue grew 15% with backlog up 28%. | Broken | Utility structures revenue growth falls below 10% or margin below 18% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 1, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.08 → $4.87 · observed estimates
$2.85B → $2.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.08 | $2,848,966,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.12 | $2,838,866,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.12 | $2,838,866,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.12 | $2,838,866,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.12 | $2,838,866,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.02 | $2,851,800,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.87 | $2,843,525,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 3–Nov 1 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 3, 2026–Nov 1, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings5 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.