Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$149.15+0.08%
Close 2026-10-22 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -2.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACA — director transition
Dated 2026-10-23
Director: The filing describes a complete turnover of the board and officers due to a merger, where the old team resigned to be replaced by the acquirer's team, which is a structural change rather than a routine departure or promotion.
Why it matters: Paying off debt gives more financial freedom and helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they will reduce debt by at least $50 million.
Worry ifNo announcements of further debt reduction in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Cutting debt can help the company be more flexible with money. It can also support future growth plans.
Supportive ifNet Debt to Adjusted EBITDA drops to below 1.9x after the barge sale.
Worry ifNet Debt to Adjusted EBITDA remains above 2.3x after the barge sale.
Why it matters: The $150-per-share cash deal depends on Arcosa stockholder and regulatory approval. A delay or failed approval would put the deal timeline at risk.
Watch forArcosa reports stockholder approval and needed regulatory clearance. The deal is still set to close in Q1 2027.
Also watch forArcosa or CRH reports a failed approval, a deal end, or a closing delay past Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Continuing operations used $24.7 million of cash in Q2, and free cash flow was negative $51.0 million. A cash rebound would ease this concern.
Worry ifThe next comparable report shows that ongoing operations used cash again. Or free cash flow stayed below zero.
Less concerning ifThe next comparable report shows cash from operations and free cash flow were both above zero.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$11 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $198 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,145 loss on $10,000 · 21.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More free cash flow means better cash management and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ3 free cash flow reported above $(51.0) million.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow reported worse than $(51.0) million.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue guidance show that management is confident and the company is doing well.
Watch forManagement raises the 2026 revenue guidance to more than $2.7 billion.
Also watch forManagement lowers the 2026 revenue guidance to less than $2.6 billion.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong operations. It also shows market confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings report shows results within or above the raised guidance range.
Worry ifQ3 earnings report falls below the raised guidance range.
Why it matters: Strong growth in utility structures is important for Arcosa's performance. It affects their guidance.
Supportive ifUtility structures revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifUtility structures revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows the company is financially healthy. It also shows good operations.
Supportive ifFree cash flow from continuing operations turns positive in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps the company manage money better. It supports long-term growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of more debt reduction from the barge sale.
Worry ifNo further debt reduction announcements are made in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The acquisition is a major event that could reshape Arcosa's future. It may enhance growth and financial stability.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close in Q1 2027. All required approvals are obtained.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close. This is due to stockholder or regulatory disapproval.
Why it matters: Strong growth in Adjusted EBITDA shows the company is doing well. It also shows good management.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A better ratio shows stronger financial health and less debt. It shows management cares about flexibility.
Supportive ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improves to below 1.8x in Q3.
Worry ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio remains above 2.0x in Q3.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifUtility structures backlog growth was over 40% since the start of 2026.
Worry ifUtility structures backlog growth was under 40% since the start of 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is key to overall performance and strategy.
Supportive ifConstruction Products revenue grows more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifConstruction Products revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Approval is key for the merger to close and impacts Arcosa's future direction.
Supportive ifStockholders said yes at the special meeting on September 4, 2026.
Worry ifStockholder approval was denied or delayed past the expected date.