Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$145.45-0.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
ACA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operation and Financial Condition. Attached as Exhibit 99.1 is the registrant’s earnings release for the second quarter of 2026, issued August 5, 2026. This release is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise incorporated by reference into any filing pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, except as otherwise expressl…
Why it matters: Approval is important for the merger. It will affect Arcosa's future.
Supportive ifStockholder approval is given for the CRH deal.
Worry ifStockholder approval is denied. This stops the acquisition process.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows better financial health. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on revenue growth can show how confident the company is in its performance. They also reflect market conditions.
Watch forManagement raises revenue guidance for Q2 2026 above the current range of $2.6B to $2.7B.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue guidance for Q2 2026 below the current range.
Why it matters: Cutting debt can help the company be more flexible with money. It can also support future growth plans.
Supportive ifNet Debt to Adjusted EBITDA drops to below 1.9x after the barge sale.
Worry ifNet Debt to Adjusted EBITDA remains above 2.3x after the barge sale.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$30 on $10,000 · ±0.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,145 loss on $10,000 · 21.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Paying off debt gives more financial freedom and helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they will reduce debt by at least $50 million.
Worry ifNo announcements of further debt reduction in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Arcosa needs strong growth in utility structures. This is important for its strategy and finances.
Supportive ifUtility structures revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifUtility structures revenue growth is below 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps the company manage money better. It supports long-term growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of more debt reduction from the barge sale.
Worry ifNo further debt reduction announcements are made in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The merger with CRH could enhance Arcosa's market position and financial strength.
Supportive ifMerger with CRH closes as planned in Q1 2027.
Worry ifThe merger may be delayed or fail because of regulatory problems.
Why it matters: A strong margin shows good cost management and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 20% for Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 18% for Q3.
Why it matters: A better ratio shows stronger financial health and less debt. It shows management cares about flexibility.
Supportive ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improves to below 1.8x in Q3.
Worry ifNet debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio remains above 2.0x in Q3.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand and future revenue in a key area.
Supportive ifUtility structures backlog grows by over 20% from Q1 2026.
Worry ifUtility structures backlog growth is flat or declines from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in this area is key to overall performance and strategy.
Supportive ifConstruction Products revenue grows more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifConstruction Products revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Approval is key for the merger to close and impacts Arcosa's future. A successful merger could enhance growth and financial stability.
Supportive ifStockholders approved the merger with CRH on September 4, 2026.
Worry ifStockholders said no to the merger proposal at the special meeting.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is key for financial health. A big change shows cash management skills.
Watch forFree cash flow turns positive for Q3 2026.
Also watch forFree cash flow remains negative or worsens in Q3 2026.