Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.77+2.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.83 → 0.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACEL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Generate revenue from Chicago VGT market by late 2026 | The company is expanding into the Chicago VGT market, which should add new revenue streams. | Intact | No revenue from Chicago VGT market by Q4 2026 | Qualitative: Rollout plan confirmed (100-200 locations/yr) vs Q4 2026 target Accel outlines Chicago rollout of 100-200 locations annually; Fairmount targets $20M-$25M annualized EBITDA. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ACEL is a growth-oriented gaming business with robust earnings quality and strong recent financial performance. Its multi-year view is intact, though the CEO transition and a recent earnings miss add uncertainty.
The valuation is tagged as justified, with a cheap-versus-peers signal but a separate peer comparison showing a premium, so the evidence is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be below the model’s view; confidence in that estimate is medium, and no valuation fragility flags are present.
Near-term results could face pressure: the company has a run of earnings misses, and the snapshot identifies a meaningful negative if guidance is cut on the next call. Over the multi-year view, revenue has grown, 2026 guidance is above 2025 revenue, and Louisiana expansion is progressing; Chicago is prepared for expansion once licensing allows it.
A key swing factor is whether ACEL maintains guidance and turns its readiness in Chicago into revenue as approvals progress. Louisiana growth and acquisitions are supportive, while results from sector bellwethers could either sustain or weaken the broader industry tailwind.
The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact but rests on continued revenue growth, execution in Louisiana and Chicago, and steadier earnings delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We also delivered strong third-quarter performances in Georgia, Nebraska and Louisiana, continued expansion in Nevada, and significant momentum at Fairmount Park, where gaming revenue increased approximately 84% year-over-year.” “"The operation of gaming terminals in Chicago remains one of Accel’s most compelling near-term growth opportunities.”
Leadership stability and execution on growth plans | A supporting condition in Accel Entertainment, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership disruptions; successful execution of growth initiatives. | Improving | Significant leadership issues or failure to execute growth plans | Qualitative: 100-200 Chicago locations planned; CEO sold $302k stock Chicago expansion plans and earnings beats reinforce growth execution, despite minor leadership turnover and insider selling. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain profit margins near current levels | Profit margins remain stable with a low valuation compared to peers. | Broken | Profit margins or EPS decline more than 10% YoY next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue near $1.3 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Accel Entertainment, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.3 billion total revenue. | Broken | total revenue falls below $1.2 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $363.555M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.3 billion total revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 2026363,555,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.97 → $0.86 · observed estimates
$1.46B → $1.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.80 | $1,459,581,433 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.80 | $1,459,581,433 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.97 | $1,460,286,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.80 | $1,459,581,433 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.98 | $1,484,486,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.98 | $1,497,595,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.98 | $1,497,595,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.98 | $1,497,595,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.08 | $1,497,595,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.08 | $1,497,595,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.08 | $1,497,595,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.84 | $1,501,147,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.84 | $1,501,147,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.84 | $1,501,147,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.84 | $1,501,147,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.84 | $1,501,147,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.84 | $1,501,147,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.84 | $1,501,147,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.86 | $1,501,097,167 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.83 | $1,501,797,571 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.83 | $1,505,005,286 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.85 | $1,506,776,714 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.85 | $1,508,073,386 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.85 | $1,508,073,386 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.85 | $1,508,073,386 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.86 | $1,508,073,386 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.86 | $1,506,930,529 | 2 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.