Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.88+0.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve revenue near $1.3 billion in 2026: FY26 revenue guidance $720M vs $1.3B target.
Accel Entertainment grows revenue steadily, aiming for $1.3 billion in 2026. The company is expanding into the Chicago VGT market, which should add new revenue streams. Profit margins remain stable with a low valuation compared to peers. Recent earnings beats show operational strength.
Growth depends heavily on the Chicago VGT market expansion, which is still unproven. CEO stock sales raise concerns about leadership commitment. The company faces sector headwinds and elevated risk, which could pressure margins and growth.
The stock price is about 5% below our fair value near $13. Analysts expect roughly 5% revenue growth, which aligns with our view. The valuation is cheap compared to peers, reflecting some market caution.
Breaks if: No revenue from Chicago VGT market by Q4 2026
Breaks if: Significant leadership issues or failure to execute growth plans
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
ACEL represents a durable compounder in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The company is focused on expanding its market presence and achieving record revenue, though it faces some near-term risks.
The current valuation suggests that ACEL is priced reasonably compared to its peers, with a slight premium. The market appears to have factored in some expectations of growth, but there is a gap in expectations that could influence future performance.
Management has shown strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth. However, there is a moderate risk of missing expectations due to recent earnings misses in the industry, which could affect ACEL's results.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to execute their expansion plans, particularly in the Chicago and Louisiana markets. Additionally, the performance of sector peers and broader economic conditions, such as inflation rates, will be critical in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company could expand the Chicago VGT market. However, it recently missed earnings expectations. This mixed outlook reflects both potential growth and current challenges.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Profit margins or EPS decline more than 10% YoY next year
Breaks if: total revenue falls below $1.2 billion in FY26
Drive revenue growth across core and developing markets to set new company revenue records.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue increased from $323.9M in 2025-Q1 to $368.1M in 2026-Q2 (+13.6%), with full year 2025 revenue at $659.8M and 2026 guidance at $719.7M. Management has consistently highlighted record revenue achievements and growth across quarters. The trajectory is delivering with steady revenue growth.
“Accel delivered quarterly record revenue of $368 million, up 10% year-over-year.”
“Revenue increased 9% to $352 million compared to Q1 '25.”
“For the full year, we generated record revenue of $1.3 billion.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACEL's performance will depend on its execution and external market factors. Not investment advice.