Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.88+0.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACEL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026 , Accel Entertainment, Inc. ( the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached and furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plans will guide Accel's path and may affect growth and efficiency.
Watch forThe new CEO shares a plan with clear growth goals and timelines.
Also watch forThe new CEO fails to outline a clear strategic direction or growth initiatives.
Why it matters: Licensing approvals will allow Accel to expand its gaming terminals in Chicago. This is crucial for revenue growth in a key market.
Supportive ifThe Illinois Gaming Board will give licenses for at least 50 new VGT spots in Chicago.
Worry ifNo new licenses are granted for Chicago VGT locations in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Success in Louisiana would support Accel's growth strategy and revenue goals.
Supportive ifAccel has a new location or partnership in Louisiana.
Worry ifNo new developments or delays in the Louisiana expansion plans.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company strategy and operations. A stable leadership team is crucial for growth.
Worry ifA new Chief Compliance Officer has been announced. They are respected in the industry.
Less concerning ifMore departures or problems in the executive team.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$107 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $265 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,769 loss on $10,000 · 17.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Steady net income growth shows strong performance and better profits.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 2026 exceeds $15 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 falls below $12 million.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows Accel is doing well and expanding.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue reported at over $400 million, reflecting more than 10% growth.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue was below $380 million. This shows growth is slowing.
Why it matters: More gaming terminals in Illinois can drive revenue growth. This is crucial for Accel's expansion strategy.
Supportive ifAccel adds more than 100 new gaming terminals in Illinois by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new gaming terminals added in Illinois by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Licensing in Chicago is key for Accel's growth. It can boost revenue significantly.
Supportive ifChicago gave gaming licenses to at least 10 places for Accel.
Worry ifNo new licenses issued for Accel in Chicago over the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in Illinois is key for Accel's overall performance. A strong result shows continued demand.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue from Illinois exceeds 6% growth year over year.
Worry ifIllinois revenue growth falls below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would show that Accel is moving in the right direction. It would support the goal of achieving record revenue for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported on August 4, 2026, shows growth year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported on August 4, 2026, declines year over year.
Why it matters: Fairmount Park's performance is key for Accel's growth and market presence.
Watch forFairmount Park Casino's gross profit is up more than 20% compared to last year.
Also watch forFairmount Park Casino's gross profit is down compared to last year.
Why it matters: Revenue growth in Louisiana shows Accel is expanding well in the market.
Supportive ifLouisiana net revenues increase year-over-year by more than 10% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifLouisiana net revenues grow less than 5% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted EBITDA shows that operations are doing well.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA grows by over 10% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth is less than 5% year-over-year.