Accel Entertainment, Inc. (ACEL)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.77+2.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACEL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 4, 2026 , Accel Entertainment, Inc. ( the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached and furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Chicago launches could add locations in a market management calls a key growth chance. The next test is whether licenses lead to live terminals.
Supportive ifThe City gives licenses to Accel locations. Accel says its first Chicago terminals will be live by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNo Accel Chicago licenses or live terminals are reported by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: These growing markets added terminals and lifted revenue in Q2. Continued gains would support Accel's plan to grow beyond Illinois.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, Nebraska revenue grows at least 25% and Georgia revenue at least 30% year over year.
Worry ifIn the next reported quarter, either Nebraska or Georgia revenue is flat or down year over year.
Why it matters: Q2 free cash flow was $10 million, or $26 million without a tax credit purchase. The next report can show whether cash generation remains firm.
Worry ifQ3 operating cash flow is at least $30 million and free cash flow is at least $20 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating cash flow is below $20 million or free cash flow is below $10 million.
Why it matters: The new table games and second racing season give Fairmount Park room to grow. Higher gross profit would show that the added offer is gaining traction.
Supportive ifA later report shows Fairmount Park's quarterly gross profit is above Q2 2026. It is the highest since the acquisition.
Worry ifA later report shows Fairmount Park quarterly gross profit below Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$90 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $260 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,103 loss on $10,000 · 21.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.