Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ACI Worldwide (ACIW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$59.52+0.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.94 → 2.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACIW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand ACI Connetic cloud payments platform pipeline | Its cloud payments platform wins new clients. | Improving | Pipeline growth stalls or shrinks over next 4 quarters | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ACIW is a payments software company with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. The multi-year view is intact, with management execution and earnings quality as supports, but overall confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
The evidence labels valuation as cheap versus peers, while also showing that modeled expectations are above the current outlook, a gap of 12%. The market pricing is tagged as justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to an unusually fragile setup.
Near term, recent results are mixed: ACIW reported two earnings beats and one miss, and the stated risk of a miss is low, though recent surprises have been erratic. Management has raised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance, supporting the growth trajectory, while Connetic expansion remains mixed because its revenue impact is not quantified. Share repurchases are progressing, but sector pressure and the elevated risk rating remain relevant.
The multi-year thesis hinges on management sustaining its raised guidance and converting Connetic customer wins into measurable business impact. A guidance reversal would weaken management credibility, while easing interest rates or steadier results from major technology companies could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ACIW has a supported but not risk-free growth thesis: guidance has improved, while platform execution and consistency remain important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in ACI Worldwide's published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.89 billion. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $1.7 billion in FY26 |
Revenue: $430.423M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.89 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026430,423,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Allocate 50-60% of operating cash flow to share buybacks in 2026 | A supporting condition in ACI Worldwide's published investment case. The stated target is 50-60% of operating cash flow. | Intact | Share buybacks drop below 40% of operating cash flow in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.84 → $2.98 · observed estimates
$2.05B → $2.05B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.84 | $2,046,288,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.85 | $2,048,153,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.85 | $2,048,153,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.85 | $2,048,153,750 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.86 | $2,048,153,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.86 | $2,048,153,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.86 | $2,048,153,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.92 | $2,046,287,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.92 | $2,046,287,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.92 | $2,046,287,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.92 | $2,046,287,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.92 | $2,046,287,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.92 | $2,046,287,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.92 | $2,046,287,875 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,749 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.94 | $2,049,628,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.96 | $2,050,203,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.96 | $2,050,203,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.96 | $2,050,203,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.96 | $2,050,203,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.96 | $2,050,203,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.96 | $2,050,203,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.96 | $2,050,203,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.96 | $2,050,203,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.96 | $2,050,203,675 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.98 | $2,051,502,939 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.98 | $2,051,503,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.