ACI Worldwide (ACIW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$59.52+0.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACIW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACIW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-26
Results of Operation and Financial Condition . On February 26, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Following the publication of the earnings release, the Company hosted an earnings call in which its financial results were discussed. The investor presentation materials used for the call are attached as Exhibit 99.2. The foregoing informat…
Why it matters: Two U.S. customers signed in Q2, after a major UK bank signed in 2025. More named wins would show the platform is gaining customers.
Supportive ifACI announces at least one new ACI Connetic customer beyond the two U.S. customers signed in Q2.
Worry ifThe next earnings update reports no new ACI Connetic customers and says the pipeline has shrunk.
Why it matters: ACI guided to $417M–$427M for Q3. A result below $417M would miss its range and weaken the raised full-year outlook.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is below $417M, the low end of the stated range.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 revenue is at least $417M and full-year revenue guidance stays at $1.895B–$1.925B or higher.
Why it matters: ACI guided to $90M–$95M in Q3 adjusted EBITDA. A result below $90M would miss the range and challenge its raised full-year profit outlook.
Worry ifQ3 2026 adjusted EBITDA is below $90M, the low end of the stated range.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $90M. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance stays at $545M–$560M or higher.
Why it matters: Net new ARR bookings fell 15% for the 12 months through June, despite growth in Q1. A recovery would show stronger contract signings.
Watch forNet new ARR bookings for the trailing 12 months rise year over year in a later earnings report.
Also watch forNet new ARR bookings for the trailing 12 months fall further year over year, or full-year growth is no longer expected.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,402 loss on $10,000 · 24.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.