ACI Worldwide (ACIW)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$52.95+0.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACIW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 68 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACIW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-26
Results of Operation and Financial Condition . On February 26, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Following the publication of the earnings release, the Company hosted an earnings call in which its financial results were discussed. The investor presentation materials used for the call are attached as Exhibit 99.2. The foregoing informat…
Why it matters: More share repurchases show strong confidence in cash flow. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases reported at over 50% of operating cash flow for the year.
Worry ifShare repurchases were below 40% of operating cash flow.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows growth and confidence in the business.
Supportive ifManagement says full-year 2026 revenue guidance is $1.895 billion or more.
Worry ifManagement cuts the 2026 revenue forecast. They expect it to be below $1.895 billion.
Why it matters: Continued growth in new ARR bookings shows strong demand for ACI's services and supports future revenue.
Supportive ifNew ARR bookings grow more than 39% year over year.
Worry ifNew ARR bookings growth falls below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in adjusted EBITDA margin will show how well the company manages costs as it grows.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 34% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 34% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management's confidence in the company's value and plans.
Supportive ifMore share buybacks were announced for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share buybacks were announced. This may raise concerns about cash flow or plans.
Why it matters: Stable or growing ARR bookings show strong future revenue and customer loyalty.
Supportive ifNet new ARR bookings reported above $18 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet new ARR bookings were below $18 million. This may mean customer loss or market issues.
Why it matters: This revenue range shows that management is confident in growth and demand for services.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported within the range of $417 million to $427 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $417 million.
Why it matters: This guidance shows what management thinks about making money. It also shows how they run the business.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was between $90 million and $95 million.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA was less than $90 million.
Why it matters: New customers would show that more people want the platform. This supports management's plan.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new customer win for ACI Connetic.
Worry ifNo new customer wins announced for ACI Connetic in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $403 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,825 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.