Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$90.00-2.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.27 → 5.27 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACLS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit margin near Q1 2026 level of $80.58M | A primary condition in Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $80.58 million. | Broken | Gross profit falls below $80.58 million in any quarter | Gross profit: $97.424M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $80.58 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 202697,424,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ACLS is a cyclical technology-equipment business with a growth component, rather than a steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, supported by recent revenue growth, but profitability progress is mixed and the risk label has risen from elevated to high.
The valuation evidence points to ACLS as cheap versus peers, with a slightly negative expectations gap, meaning expectations are marginally below the model’s view. The evidence labels the current pricing as justified, with low fragility, so it does not indicate that weak execution is fully reflected in the valuation.
Near term, revenue growth has been supported by system shipments and CS&I volume, and third-quarter revenue guidance is above second-quarter revenue. Profitability remains a concern: second-quarter gross margin and operating income were below the year-earlier figures, despite improvement from the prior quarter. A new CFO transition and the possibility of a guidance cut add uncertainty, although the assessed near-term miss risk is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued growth across Memory, Power, and CS&I, alongside clearer progress on profitability and the pending Veeco merger. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; easing interest rates or steadier results from major technology companies could support the sector backdrop, but those outcomes are uncertain.
For the next one to three years, ACLS has a supported growth story but uneven profitability and elevated risk. The long-term thesis remains intact, with execution, guidance, and the merger still important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income near Q1 2026 level of $7.95M |
| A primary condition in Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $7.95 million. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $7.95 million in any quarter |
Operating income: $27.343M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $7.95 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 202627,343,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above $205M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Axcelis Technologies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $205 million. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $205 million in 2026-Q2 | Revenue: $237.781M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $205 million. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 5, 2026237,781,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.85 → $5.27 · observed estimates
$0.93B → $0.99B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.85 | $925,213,930 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.91 | $978,937,420 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.91 | $978,937,420 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.91 | $978,937,420 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.27 | $988,774,340 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.27 | $988,774,340 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.27 | $988,774,340 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.85 | $925,217,929 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.85 | $925,217,929 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.85 | $925,217,929 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.85 | $925,217,929 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.85 | $925,217,929 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.85 | $925,217,929 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.85 | $925,217,929 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $5.27 | $988,774,336 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.