Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (ACLS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$115.08+4.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySemiconductorsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACLS
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $115 ACLS trades at 27× p/e, below its 47× p/e peer median, but our blended $95 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $148 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcff | 12M | $12.66 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $57.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $116.62 | 34.8 | 3.21 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $99.40 | 47.2 | 2.11 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 61% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 8.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.59/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $203.72 |
| 47.2 |
| 4.32 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $127.78 | 4.6 | 27.82 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $56.98 | 13.2 | 4.32 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $36.86 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $126.75 | 29.3 | 4.32 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $222.77 | 47.2 | 4.72 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $27.02 | 47.2 | 0.57 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $296.00 | 47.2 | 6.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $173.82 | 4.6 | 37.84 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $82.79 | 13.2 | 6.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $184.17 | 29.3 | 6.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $361.63 | 47.2 | 7.67 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $212.35 | 4.6 | 46.23 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $101.15 | 13.2 | 7.67 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $225.00 | 29.3 | 7.67 | Analyst | high |